美國港口是否空蕩蕩的？關(guān)稅對全球航運(yùn)有什么影響？
Are US Ports Empty and What Impact Does the Tariff Have on Global Shipping?
譯文簡介
網(wǎng)友：作為一個(gè)不懂航海的英國人，我一直認(rèn)為洛杉磯是一個(gè)充滿魅力的好萊塢地方。但最近看了這個(gè)頻道后，我意識到它是一個(gè)巨大的物流中心，成千上萬的工作依賴于它。感謝提供如此深刻的見解。來自英國。
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As an English landlubber, I have always viewed L A as a glamorous Hollywood place. But having watched this channel recently, I have realised it is a huge logistics hub, with thousands of jobs depending on it. Thanks for the great insight. From the United Kingdom.
作為一個(gè)不懂航海的英國人，我一直認(rèn)為洛杉磯是一個(gè)充滿魅力的好萊塢地方。但最近看了這個(gè)頻道后，我意識到它是一個(gè)巨大的物流中心，成千上萬的工作依賴于它。感謝提供如此深刻的見解。來自英國。
Fascinating. My father worked for Hapag-Lloyd for over 30 years in Tokyo running the accounting department. I feel very nostalgic listening to you. Outstanding. Thank you.
太有意思了。我的父親在東京的Hapag-Lloyd 公司工作了30多年，負(fù)責(zé)會計(jì)部門。聽你講這些讓我感到非常懷舊。非常棒，謝謝你。
I took an interest in shipping at the beginning of the shipping crisis. I had ordered a $2m machine from Germany and it shipped to California right during all the chaos. I was tracking the ship online. It was really interesting.
在航運(yùn)危機(jī)開始時(shí)，我對航運(yùn)產(chǎn)生了興趣。我曾從德國訂購了一臺價(jià)值200萬美元的機(jī)器，它正好在所有混亂期間被運(yùn)往加利福尼亞。我一直在網(wǎng)上追蹤這艘船，真的很有意思。
As a trucker, the news misleads, this channel educates.
作為一名卡車司機(jī)，新聞往往誤導(dǎo)人，而這個(gè)頻道則在教育人。
I have a Wholesale business in Thailand. We note that American customers have basically abandoned goods they have paid deposits on prior to Trumps Tarrifs. 34% on Thailand. We, as a Wholesaler of wooden products do not see an increase in demand. Actually the complete opposite.
我在泰國做批發(fā)生意。我們注意到，美國客戶基本上放棄了之前為商品支付的訂金，因?yàn)樘乩势盏年P(guān)稅。泰國商品加征了34%的關(guān)稅。作為一家木制品的批發(fā)商，我們并沒有看到需求增加，實(shí)際上完全相反。
Who would have thought that shipping to the USA would decrease after the country declared sanctions on itself?
誰能想到，美國宣布制裁自己后，向美國的航運(yùn)會減少呢？
Im a truck driver going into the Long Beach and Los Angeles Ports, and work is going to slow down substantially in May. Most of the Chinese import customers aren't ordering anything from China.
我是一個(gè)卡車司機(jī)，進(jìn)出長灘和洛杉磯港，預(yù)計(jì)5月工作會大幅減緩。大多數(shù)中國進(jìn)口客戶不再從中國訂購任何東西。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
I’m retired from the MFOW and worked out of L A for 14 years. I worked with APL and Matson. I remember the day the Long Beach Navy Shipyard closed and construction of what’s now Terminal 300 and nearby, Terminal 400. The average public across the country has no idea of what all leaves the U S outbound and inbound from the Pacific Rim.
我從MFOW退休，在洛杉磯工作了14年。我曾與APL和Matson合作。我記得長灘海軍船塢關(guān)閉的那天，以及現(xiàn)在的300號碼頭和附近的400號碼頭的建設(shè)。美國普通民眾根本不知道從太平洋地區(qū)進(jìn)出口的貨物有多少。
Excellent analysis. I would add that for some products, typically parts for the semiconductor industry, companies do not stock due to the high cost, so they order on demand. For these products the effects of the Tariff are immediate.
出色的分析。我想補(bǔ)充一點(diǎn)，對于一些產(chǎn)品，通常是半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)的零部件，由于成本高，公司通常不進(jìn)行庫存，所以會按需訂購。對于這些產(chǎn)品，關(guān)稅的影響是立即顯現(xiàn)的。
Sam , I have been watching the rail fan live cams for the past few weeks and it is very interesting to watch the drop off of inter model trains heading east in Western Pennsylvania, on NS and CSX, coming from east coast ports. Containers with Hagag, Maersk, and Costco paint colors have almost disappeared. In addition, during the time only one coal drag heading to Baltimore. While at least there is one good thing coming out of this slow down and that is the AMTRACK trains are running on time??
Sam，我這幾周一直在觀看鐵道迷直播攝像頭，看到西賓夕法尼亞州NS和CSX上的洲際貨運(yùn)列車逐漸減少，這些列車來自東海岸港口。帶有Hapag、Maersk和Costco顏色的集裝箱幾乎消失了。此外，在這段時(shí)間里，只有一列煤炭列車前往巴爾的摩。雖然這次經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩帶來了一些好處，那就是AMTRACK的列車準(zhǔn)時(shí)運(yùn)行了。
I love this shipping news, particularly the pointers to other info sites that explain the economic impacts of all the trade war craziness.
我喜歡這個(gè)航運(yùn)新聞，特別是那些指向其他信息網(wǎng)站的內(nèi)容，這些網(wǎng)站解釋了貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)瘋狂的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
A friend told me of his friend who imports soft toys to America from China, he had paid $100k for the toys and was then made to pay an additional $100k, which he didn’t have. Now he is bankrupt and has no idea where the product he paid for is. There must be many stories like this
一個(gè)朋友告訴我，他的朋友從中國進(jìn)口軟玩具到美國，他為這些玩具支付了10萬美元，結(jié)果被要求額外支付10萬美元，他根本沒有這筆錢?，F(xiàn)在他破產(chǎn)了，甚至不知道他支付了款項(xiàng)的產(chǎn)品在哪里。一定有很多類似的故事。
Thanks for this report! In my view, this crisis should not be attributed to a "trade war" but rather to a trade aggression by the USA. China has done nothing to deserve punitive tariffs nor unreasonable port fees and exclusions.
The U.S., like China has done, should spend our tax money on supporting ship building, infrastructure, manufacturing, education, medicare-for-all, good wages, small business and other necessities of a civilized life, instead of wasting our money on war and corruption of all kinds. We shouldn't be punishing another country for being successful!
感謝這份報(bào)告！在我看來，這場危機(jī)不應(yīng)歸因于“貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)”，而應(yīng)歸咎于美國的貿(mào)易侵略。中國并沒有做出任何行為值得被征收懲罰性關(guān)稅、額外港口費(fèi)用和排除。
像中國一樣，美國應(yīng)該把我們的稅款用于支持造船、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、制造業(yè)、教育、全民醫(yī)保、提高工資、小企業(yè)和其他文明生活必需品，而不是浪費(fèi)在戰(zhàn)爭和各種腐敗上。我們不應(yīng)該懲罰另一個(gè)成功的國家！
Man. Some of those numbers are amazing. It all feels so delicate.
天哪。一些數(shù)字真是令人驚嘆。整個(gè)系統(tǒng)感覺如此脆弱。
Walmart are signalling two weeks before shorages at US stores become visible to customers
沃爾瑪正在提前兩周預(yù)測美國商店可能出現(xiàn)的短缺，顧客將會察覺到
Thank you. My Chinese part providers quit shipping to the US. I am unable to produce new products, while I search for other vendors. I will have to raise prices a lot.
謝謝。我的中國零件供應(yīng)商已經(jīng)停止向美國發(fā)貨了。在我尋找其他供應(yīng)商的過程中，我無法生產(chǎn)新產(chǎn)品。我不得不大幅提高價(jià)格。
We’ve got an overload of containers at my work, I’ve never seen so many our warehouse is busting at the seams. We can’t unload the containers. They’re just sitting in our yard. We’re starting to put them in the employee parking area. It’s crazy right now for warehousing.
我們公司現(xiàn)在堆積了太多的集裝箱，倉庫簡直滿得不能再滿了。我們根本卸不下集裝箱，它們就停在我們院子里。我們甚至開始把它們放到員工停車區(qū)?，F(xiàn)在的倉儲情況簡直瘋狂。
Excellent report! I didn't hear mention of the Chinese shipping that enters the US via the port of Lazaro Cardenas in Michoacan, Mexico and carried by Kansas City rail line crossing at Texas. This line was created thanks to NAFTA as a way around the longshoremen at Long Beach. How are these containers accounted for in your report, or is the quantity not worth mentioning? By the way, the NAFTA rail line runs right behind my house in Morelia and volume of traffic has not diminished as far as I can tell (roughly three trainloads of containers per day).
很棒的報(bào)告！我沒有聽到提到通過墨西哥米卻肯州的拉薩羅·卡德納斯港進(jìn)入美國的中國貨運(yùn)，這些貨物由堪薩斯城鐵路公司運(yùn)輸，經(jīng)過德州。這條鐵路線路是根據(jù)北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定（NAFTA）建立的，目的是繞過長灘港的碼頭工人。你在報(bào)告中是如何計(jì)算這些集裝箱的，或者它們的數(shù)量不值得提及嗎？順便說一下，NAFTA鐵路線路就在我家旁邊（莫雷利亞），據(jù)我所知，交通量沒有減少（大約每天三列裝有集裝箱的火車）。
Thank you for sharing your, time, work, knowledge and experience Sal, it is always informative to get your thoughts on what is happening with shipping and how that affects the greater economy, cheers
謝謝你，Sal，感謝你分享你的時(shí)間、工作、知識和經(jīng)驗(yàn)，每次聽你談?wù)摵竭\(yùn)以及它如何影響更廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)，總是讓人受益匪淺，干杯！
The three largest suppliers to the US are all halting shipments. Overland from Canada and Mexico is also down considerably, and will continue to drop.
There will be no apple pie by the 4th of July.
美國的三大供應(yīng)商都停止了發(fā)貨。從加拿大和墨西哥的陸路運(yùn)輸也大幅減少，并且將繼續(xù)下降。到7月4日，我們可能就沒有蘋果派了。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
The big retailers are saying empty shelves will start being seen in 2 weeks from now. Those are the folks that know.
大零售商說，從現(xiàn)在起兩周內(nèi)，空貨架將開始顯現(xiàn)。那些人最了解情況。
It would appear America has a president who is pushing buttons and pulling levers without any idea of what the outcome will be.
看起來美國現(xiàn)在的總統(tǒng)是在按下按鈕、拉動杠桿，但完全不知道結(jié)果會怎樣。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
This is very good reporting. Why isn't a major network paying you and airing this for the public. Maybe even a condensed Version? I don't get how American Media works at all!
這是非常好的報(bào)道。為什么沒有主流媒體支付你并將這內(nèi)容播出給公眾呢？也許甚至可以做一個(gè)精簡版？我完全搞不懂美國媒體是怎么運(yùn)作的！
Amazon? Really! No way. !
亞馬遜？真的嗎！不可能。
While some of the changes in shipping are short term, there is clearly going to be some long term changes as manufacturers in other countries realise that US import policies are, at best, unpredictable, so actively seek alternate markets for their products. It is worth noting that this search for other markets is today far easier as ALL countries in the world are facing the same challenge (and realisation of US inconstancy) at the same time. There will not be massive overnight changes, more the slow decrease of imports.
雖然一些航運(yùn)方面的變化是短期的，但顯然會有一些長期變化，因?yàn)槠渌麌业闹圃焐桃庾R到美國的進(jìn)口政策，充其量是不可預(yù)測的，因此積極尋找其他市場來銷售他們的產(chǎn)品。值得注意的是，今天所有國家都面臨相同的挑戰(zhàn)（以及對美國不確定性的認(rèn)識），因此尋找其他市場變得更加容易。這不會是一個(gè)一夜之間發(fā)生的巨大變化，而是進(jìn)口量逐漸減少的過程。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Running a business that requires planning imported goods from a number of countries months in advance is a lot of fun right now. It's a magical mystery tour of not knowing if the quote you've given your customer is going to lose you money or not when they make the order and you need to downchain order the components at unknown prices.
現(xiàn)在經(jīng)營一家需要提前幾個(gè)月計(jì)劃從多個(gè)國家進(jìn)口商品的生意，真是太有趣了。這就像一個(gè)神秘的旅行，不知道當(dāng)客戶下單時(shí)你給出的報(bào)價(jià)是否會讓你虧錢，而你還得根據(jù)不確定的價(jià)格去下訂單。
Some US trade is through the Canadian port of Vancouver. It's a shorter shipping distance from Northern China/Japan, and the port has better/closer connections to the US Midwest.
Wyoming is exporting coal from this port also, as the US ports aren't expanding to accommodate more business.
Supermax container ships can't use the older, smaller container port cranes as well.
一些美國的貿(mào)易是通過加拿大的溫哥華港口進(jìn)行的。從中國北方/日本到這里的航運(yùn)距離較短，而且該港口與美國中西部有更好的、更近的連接。
懷俄明州也通過這個(gè)港口出口煤炭，因?yàn)槊绹母劭跊]有擴(kuò)展到可以容納更多業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模。
超大型集裝箱船無法使用舊的較小的集裝箱港口起重機(jī)。
Aliexpress raised prices over night. Everything is 1.5x-3x more expensive from China now
速賣通的價(jià)格一夜之間漲了。從中國的商品現(xiàn)在貴了1.5倍到3倍。
G'day from Australia, great channel mate. I noticed in some of those charts a stats that US exports were also down. Could you please provide some commentary about that if it's relevant? Also, I believe after the disruption from Covid there was also problems with locations of containers, is that correct & if so will see a repeat? Cheers
來自澳大利亞的問候，太棒了，朋友！我注意到一些圖表中顯示美國出口也在下降。能否提供一些相關(guān)的評論？此外，我認(rèn)為在疫情后的確出現(xiàn)了集裝箱位置的問題，是嗎？如果是的話，未來會不會再次發(fā)生？謝謝！
It's so great to get just obxtive facts, no spin. It's hard to get accurate info right now when people are using hyperbole & making wild predictions looking to capitalize on everyone needing daily upxes because things can dramatically change from day to day.
很高興能夠看到如此客觀的事實(shí)，沒有任何偏見。現(xiàn)在很難獲得準(zhǔn)確的信息，因?yàn)楹芏嗳硕荚谑褂每鋸埖难赞o和做出瘋狂的預(yù)測，借此滿足大家每天都需要更新信息的需求，因?yàn)榍闆r每天都在劇烈變化。
The full tariffs haven't hit yet. I believe the end of the 90 days freeze on full tariffs is the beginning of July (?) We will see a fuller effect as we get closer to that date and there aren't trade agreements and more companies stop orders. I don't see how this abrupt trade war helps increase manufacturing in the U.S. It takes time to plan, build and get factories running.
完整的關(guān)稅還沒有完全生效。我相信完整關(guān)稅的90天凍結(jié)期會在七月初結(jié)束？我們會在接近那個(gè)日期時(shí)看到更大的影響，屆時(shí)沒有貿(mào)易協(xié)議，更多公司會停止訂單。我看不出這種突然的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)如何能幫助增加美國的制造業(yè)。畢竟，計(jì)劃、建設(shè)和啟動工廠需要時(shí)間。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
One of the screens on the L.A./Long Beach port showed, that didn't get mentioned in your analyses, was a 15% drop in loaded containers for export. That is the reason that trade wars are a no win game, they are impose actions and retaliate actions that snuff out all trade.
在洛杉磯/長灘港的其中一個(gè)屏幕上顯示了一個(gè)沒有在你們的分析中提到的數(shù)據(jù)，那就是出口的裝載集裝箱下降了15%。這就是為什么貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)是沒有贏家的，它們是通過實(shí)施行動和報(bào)復(fù)行動來抑制所有的貿(mào)易。
Remember; the 'price' of goods leaving China is exactly the same as it always was. Only when they land in the US, does the 'cost' double.
記住，離開中國的商品“價(jià)格”一直都是一樣的。只有當(dāng)它們到達(dá)美國時(shí)，商品的“成本”才會翻倍。
So, my company bet on the tariffs and moved 6 months or so of inventory from Mexico warehouses to Texas to avoid the tax.
I’m sure most companies have followed the same game plan
所以，我的公司押注關(guān)稅問題，并將大約六個(gè)月的庫存從墨西哥倉庫轉(zhuǎn)移到了德州，以避開關(guān)稅。我敢肯定，大多數(shù)公司也采取了同樣的應(yīng)對策略。
The Chinese are now saying that they have not even been talking to Trump about making a new tariff agreement, yet this morning Trump was lying and saying that he is actively talking with the Chinese about tariffs.
中國人現(xiàn)在說，他們甚至沒有和特朗普談?wù)撨_(dá)成新的關(guān)稅協(xié)議，而今天早上特朗普卻在撒謊，聲稱他正在和中國積極討論關(guān)稅問題。
So much damage for almost no gains in this trade war. Impact will be huge. And the 10 % base tariff on EU and all the others are also already apply.
這場貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)幾乎沒有什么收獲，卻造成了如此大的損害。影響將是巨大的。而對歐盟和其他國家的10%的基礎(chǔ)關(guān)稅也已經(jīng)生效。
Tariffs always ripple through global trade—curious to see the long-term effects on shipping.
關(guān)稅總是會對全球貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生連鎖反應(yīng)——很想看看它對航運(yùn)的長期影響。
I was a retail business owner and ran three eBay stores in the early 2000s. Times like these are great for used products, so don't worry; if you really need something, you will find it. Americans have homes full of stuff and storage units overflowing, and when needed, they will sell the items they have been wasting money on for years, renting space for things they never use. Additionally, repairing what you have will be cost-effective, so the better you are at DIY, the better off you will be. I am not worried; we can go without the toys for a while.
我曾是零售商，并在2000年代初經(jīng)營了三家eBay店鋪。像現(xiàn)在這樣的時(shí)期對二手商品非常有利，所以不用擔(dān)心；如果你真的需要某樣?xùn)|西，你總會找到的。美國人家里堆滿了東西，還有滿是存儲單元，等到需要時(shí)，他們會賣掉那些他們多年來浪費(fèi)錢租著存放的東西，修理現(xiàn)有的東西也會更劃算。所以，你越擅長自己動手做，越會受益。我不擔(dān)心；我們可以暫時(shí)沒有那些玩具。
Americans elected trump because they wanted big change... they are receiving that big change . I hope they are enjoying it and reaping its payoff for decades to come.. Love from a Canadian
美國人選特朗普是因?yàn)樗麄兿胍蟮母淖儭麄冋诮?jīng)歷這個(gè)大變化。我希望他們能享受這一切，并在未來幾十年里看到其回報(bào)……來自加拿大的祝福。
Retailers need a shelf tag that indicates how much the tariff added to the cost of that product in big numbers. That will let the consumer know what the Tariff's are costing us. Then you will see a change.
零售商需要一個(gè)貨架標(biāo)簽，上面標(biāo)明該商品因關(guān)稅而增加的成本，并且標(biāo)得非常顯眼。這樣消費(fèi)者就能知道關(guān)稅讓我們多花了多少錢。那時(shí)候你就會看到變化。
I have never been interested with stuff to do with shipping or ports or anything covered in most of these episodes. But, for some reason I can't not watch them...very interesting to see how much this stuff touches everyone in the world
我以前對航運(yùn)或港口之類的事情沒什么興趣，也不關(guān)心這些大多數(shù)節(jié)目討論的內(nèi)容。但不知為什么，我就是忍不住看，真的很有趣，看到這些事情如何影響到世界上每一個(gè)人。
We are exporters of agricultural goods from South America. By the end of 2024 demand plunged significantly and has kept low compared to other years. Retail prices have gone down on a % of goods due to lack of demand.
我們是來自南美的農(nóng)業(yè)商品出口商。到2024年底，需求大幅下降，并且與往年相比一直保持低迷。由于需求不足，部分商品的零售價(jià)格下降了。
The current disruptions in shipping, driven by tariffs and changing trade routes, highlight the vulnerability of global supply chains. While the immediate effects might not be obvious, it’s important to keep an eye on how this unfolds in the coming months, as it could have far-reaching consequences for both businesses and consumers.
當(dāng)前由于關(guān)稅和貿(mào)易路線變化引發(fā)的航運(yùn)中斷，突顯了全球供應(yīng)鏈的脆弱性。雖然短期內(nèi)可能看不出明顯影響，但關(guān)注這一變化如何在接下來的幾個(gè)月中展開很重要，因?yàn)樗赡軐ζ髽I(yè)和消費(fèi)者產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Sal, I enjoy your videos daily. Keep up the good work.
Question: If a company "blanks" a sailing, what does the ship do? Just sail to the next port? Or hang at anchor?
Sal，我每天都喜歡看你的視頻。繼續(xù)保持出色的工作。
問題：如果一家公司“取消”了一次航行，船只會做什么？是直接開往下一個(gè)港口，還是停在錨地等待？
5 more months before US retailers start preparing for the post Thanksgiving, Christmas shopping season. When do orders need to be placed, then manufactured and shipped?
離美國零售商開始為感恩節(jié)后、圣誕購物季做準(zhǔn)備還有5個(gè)月。訂單需要在什么時(shí)候下單，然后開始生產(chǎn)和運(yùn)輸？
I order the same goods every quarter from China. I quoted the shipping again this week and using DDP (duties and fees included), the price has dropped from last quote a few months ago. Very unexpected.
我每個(gè)季度從中國訂購相同的商品。這周我再次詢價(jià)，使用DDP（含稅和費(fèi)用），價(jià)格比幾個(gè)月前的報(bào)價(jià)下降了。非常出乎意料。
Prepare for some empty shelves in stores, even if DJT backs down (which he will) or changes his mind (check back in 12 hrs, he will). Many shipping and logistics companies have already started to move containers and ships to alternate routes, so even if things get sorted out, there will be big logistics and bottleneck problems.
即使特朗普妥協(xié)（他會的）或改變主意（過12小時(shí)再看看，他會的），也要準(zhǔn)備好商店的貨架空空如也。許多航運(yùn)和物流公司已經(jīng)開始將集裝箱和船只轉(zhuǎn)移到替代航線，所以即使問題解決了，仍然會出現(xiàn)重大物流瓶頸問題。
That's the shipping part, but there's more. Of the 90% of ships not cancelled the cargo they're carrying may just pile up in US customs as many customers can't or won't pay the tariff because it makes no business sense. Some importers are playing a game of chicken hoping the tariffs are cancelled while cargo is en route or held at customs before customs does something with the cargo.
這只是運(yùn)輸部分，還有更多問題。90%沒有被取消的船只，它們所運(yùn)載的貨物可能會堆積在美國海關(guān)，因?yàn)樵S多客戶無法或不愿支付關(guān)稅，因?yàn)檫@沒有商業(yè)意義。一些進(jìn)口商正在玩一種冒險(xiǎn)游戲，希望在貨物運(yùn)輸途中或在海關(guān)滯留時(shí)關(guān)稅會被取消，或者海關(guān)對貨物采取行動。
顯然，沃爾瑪、塔吉特、家得寶的首席執(zhí)行官們在周三告訴特朗普，他們預(yù)計(jì)從兩周后開始，商店貨架上將出現(xiàn)空缺。因此，美國消費(fèi)者可能會在5月的第二周開始注意到。
Even if Trump said today "just kidding" a lot of this is already baked in. But each day this keeps up will create much more serious problems. China shows no sign of even discussing trade with Trump for several reasons including they don't think he keeps his word. There's no point making a deal with someone who doesn't keep his word.
無法預(yù)測美國人會如何反應(yīng)。
即使特朗普今天說“開玩笑的”，很多問題已經(jīng)烙印在現(xiàn)實(shí)中了。但每一天的延續(xù)都會帶來更嚴(yán)重的問題。中國顯然沒有表現(xiàn)出與特朗普討論貿(mào)易的意圖，原因有很多，其中之一是他們認(rèn)為特朗普不守信用。與一個(gè)不守信用的人達(dá)成協(xié)議是沒有意義的。
What about those orders delivered to US harbors which will not be picked up with 145% tarifs.
If you paid already 100.000$ and would have to pay another 145000 on top which you then can not sell then I bet a lot of containers might stuck there in the port
如果那些已經(jīng)送到美國港口的訂單沒有被提取并被征收145%的關(guān)稅怎么辦？
如果你已經(jīng)支付了10萬美元，還需要再支付14.5萬美元，而這些貨物又無法出售，我敢打賭很多集裝箱可能會滯留在港口。
12:33 - Chinese new year was this time earlier than usually end of january and not where you pointed end of december. Usually early February.
AND: it will be happening every single day that more and more products will be vanishing from your shelves, you will observe it soon what will be missing the most. Not the toiletpaper but maybe the toothbrush, a soap or what ever you are used too coming out of china.
And then the supply might come back again but for 3 times the prices caus 145% for tarifs and then 30% more for airtraffic freigh rates due to the delayed orders and long lead time for container.
12:33 - 今年的春節(jié)比平時(shí)提前了，不是你說的12月底，而是通常在2月初。
另外：你會每天看到越來越多的商品從貨架上消失，很快你就會發(fā)現(xiàn)哪些東西最缺?？赡懿皇切l(wèi)生紙，而是牙刷、肥皂，或者你習(xí)慣從中國進(jìn)口的其他商品。
然后，供應(yīng)可能會恢復(fù)，但價(jià)格會翻三倍，因?yàn)?45%的關(guān)稅，再加上由于訂單延誤和集裝箱運(yùn)輸時(shí)間長，空運(yùn)費(fèi)用還會增加30%。
Walmart and Target are complaining of empty shelves in the coming weeks.
沃爾瑪和塔吉特公司在抱怨接下來的幾周貨架空空如也。
Sal, how are tariffs actually paid and collected? Does the ship's captain pull out a checkbook or something?
Sal，關(guān)稅到底是怎么支付和收取的？是船長拿出支票本之類的嗎？
Maybe seeing some empty shelves would be good for everyone. It might drive home just how beholden to China we are for manufacturing. It’s not a good thing.
也許看到一些空貨架對大家來說是件好事。這樣可能會讓人意識到我們在制造業(yè)上是多么依賴中國。這可不是件好事。
Hopefully we in Australia get to buy some cheap goods that are normally sold to the US
希望我們在澳大利亞能夠買到一些通常賣給美國的便宜商品。
A question: Why does ships that are going from and to the same place take so different routes?
It is only different weather- and current analysis? Seems odd that so many that looks at mostly the same models make so different choices.
(This has actually been a little bit mysterious to me when sailing)
有個(gè)問題：為什么從同一地點(diǎn)出發(fā)和到達(dá)的船只會走完全不同的路線？
這只是不同的天氣和海流分析嗎？看起來奇怪的是，雖然很多人使用大致相同的模型，但卻做出了完全不同的選擇。
（其實(shí)這一直讓我在航行時(shí)感到有點(diǎn)神秘）
Sal, Ryan’s stats of 25% are for China to US.
Your 10% average reduction for Transpacific is from Asia (including SE Asia, Japan, Korea, etc) to US (possibly also to Canada & Mexico???)
Sal，Ryan提到的25%的數(shù)據(jù)是針對從中國到美國的。
你提到的10%的平均減少是指從亞洲（包括東南亞、日本、韓國等）到美國（可能也包括加拿大和墨西哥???）的跨太平洋航線。
But without these ships Americans won't have useless cheap cr@p to waste money on. We might actually save it, invest it. We might actually return to making stuff ourselves, which could create well paying manufacturing jobs that.... I forgot where I was going with this. HMMm, what was my point?
但沒有這些船，美國人就無法購買這些沒用的便宜貨來浪費(fèi)錢。我們可能反而會存錢，投資它。我們可能真的會回到自己生產(chǎn)東西，這可以創(chuàng)造出薪資優(yōu)渥的制造業(yè)工作……我忘了我在說什么了。嗯，我的觀點(diǎn)是什么來著？
5-25% is a normal margin on goods. Nobody can afford 145%. That leaves the consumer to pick up the tab for the sales tax, and if the consumer won't pay the tax, then the goods won't get imported at all. Most 'made in america' companies import their supplies from china, so their sales tax for US consumers is going to be the same as an import. Likewise, China will just stop buying ag commodities from the US, strengthening Brazil and the EU's ag sectors.
The end result is more american companies going out of business, while foreign based ones just ignore the US market and do just fine.
5-25% 是商品的正常利潤率。沒有人能承受 145%。這會讓消費(fèi)者承擔(dān)銷售稅，如果消費(fèi)者不愿意支付稅費(fèi)，那么商品根本不會被進(jìn)口。大多數(shù)“美國制造”的公司從中國進(jìn)口原料，因此它們對美國消費(fèi)者的銷售稅就和進(jìn)口商品一樣。類似地，中國將停止購買美國的農(nóng)業(yè)商品，這將加強(qiáng)巴西和歐盟的農(nóng)業(yè)部門。
最終的結(jié)果是更多的美國公司倒閉，而外國公司則會忽視美國市場，繼續(xù)做得很好。