特朗普征收的關(guān)稅對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)意味著什么？？
What Trump's Tariffs Mean for the World Economy
譯文簡介
網(wǎng)友：一旦市場真正意識(shí)到特朗普對關(guān)稅是認(rèn)真的，沖擊將會(huì)非常猛烈。如果美國切斷與全球貿(mào)易的聯(lián)系，這種孤立主義將引發(fā)震蕩波。
正文翻譯
What Trump's Tariffs Mean for the World Economy
特朗普的關(guān)稅對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)意味著什么
特朗普的關(guān)稅對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)意味著什么
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Once markets really grasp that Trump is serious about tariffs, it’s going to hit hard. If the US cuts itself off from global trade, that isolationism is going to send shockwaves
一旦市場真正意識(shí)到特朗普對關(guān)稅是認(rèn)真的，沖擊將會(huì)非常猛烈。如果美國切斷與全球貿(mào)易的聯(lián)系，這種孤立主義將引發(fā)震蕩波。
Its so sad how many of HIS voters believed they were getting cheaper groceries when they are going to rise significantly.
可悲的是，他的那么多選民竟然相信物價(jià)會(huì)變得更便宜，而實(shí)際上商品的價(jià)格將大幅上漲。
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I retired with 26 years of tariff administration experience in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (formerly U.S. Customs Service). My job was to review/process the paperwork and collect the duties (tariffs) due on imported goods. When imported goods enter the Customs territory of the United States, duties are paid by the Importer of Record (IOR), which may be a corporation or an individual. NOTHING is paid by any foreign entity (manufacurer, shipper, or nation).
我在美國海關(guān)與邊境保護(hù)局（前身為美國海關(guān)總署）擁有26年關(guān)稅管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)后退休。我的工作是審核/處理文件并對進(jìn)口商品征收應(yīng)繳關(guān)稅（關(guān)稅）。當(dāng)進(jìn)口商品進(jìn)入美國關(guān)境時(shí)，關(guān)稅由登記的進(jìn)口商（IOR）支付，它可能是公司或個(gè)人。任何外國實(shí)體（制造商、運(yùn)輸商或國家）都不需要支付分文。
This is America's Brexit from the global economy. Like the UK, won't be long before people regret what they voted for.
這是美國在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中的"脫歐"時(shí)刻。和英國一樣，用不了多久人們就會(huì)后悔自己的選擇。
I live in a country where every import is tariffed and local economy is overprotected from competition, needless to tell you that there is a shortage of everything, quality is low, and prices are ridiculously high, everything from electonics 1nd car to staple foods like red meat.
The average person is the one who's gonna shoulder those tariffs.
我生活在一個(gè)對所有進(jìn)口商品都征收關(guān)稅、本地經(jīng)濟(jì)被過度保護(hù)免受競爭的國家。不用說，這里什么都短缺，質(zhì)量低下，價(jià)格高得離譜，從電子產(chǎn)品和汽車到紅肉等主食都是如此。最終承擔(dān)這些關(guān)稅的將是普通人。
He’s using a defensive tactic as an offensive threat. Even all the way back in the 1600s, tariffs were used to keep countries from entering the global economy, not earn more money for yourself
他正在把防御性策略當(dāng)作進(jìn)攻性威脅來使用。早在17世紀(jì)，關(guān)稅就是用來阻止國家進(jìn)入全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的手段，而不是為自己賺更多錢。
This guy is going to be the final nail in the coffin for us, fellow Americans. Whenever he forces a country to do what he says, and they refuse, he immediately bombards them with tarrifs as punishment. But in reality, the ones who will be paying for those ridiculous tarrifs are you and me. Every day, he's only making himself a target.
這個(gè)家伙將成為壓垮我們的最后一根稻草，美國同胞們。每當(dāng)他強(qiáng)迫一個(gè)國家按他說的做而遭到拒絕時(shí)，他就會(huì)立即用關(guān)稅作為懲罰進(jìn)行轟炸。但實(shí)際上，為這些荒謬關(guān)稅買單的將是你我。每一天，他都在讓自己成為眾矢之的。
The economy is grappling with uncertainties, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
美國經(jīng)濟(jì)正面臨著不確定性、全球波動(dòng)和疫情余波的多重壓力，這導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)的不穩(wěn)定。通脹上升、增長乏力和貿(mào)易中斷需要各部門立即關(guān)注，以恢復(fù)穩(wěn)定并刺激增長。
Countries just shrug their shoulders at the word tariff.
They don't care because the consumer ultimately pays the tax, not the exporting company.
The cost of tariffs is passed all along the supply chain to the end user.
各國對"關(guān)稅"這個(gè)詞只是聳聳肩。他們不在乎，因?yàn)樽罱K支付稅款的是消費(fèi)者，而不是出口公司。關(guān)稅成本會(huì)沿著供應(yīng)鏈一直傳遞到終端用戶。
Americans have companies outside the US, feeding labor for those specific countries, instead of our own. Profit drives these decisions and as long as the US companies depend on other nations for supply and labor, tariffs will never work
美國人在海外設(shè)立公司，為那些特定國家提供工作崗位，而不是為我們自己。利潤驅(qū)動(dòng)著這些決定，只要美國公司依賴其他國家提供供應(yīng)和勞動(dòng)力，關(guān)稅就永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)奏效。
What happens if products arrive at the border in parts to be assembled in the US by a small Chinese business with mainly robots for the last 5% of the work? No tariffs and no American jobs? Or.. new jobs for all those extra civil servants (paid by the American tax payers) who will have to check all these creative ways to avoid tariffs. Trump is the best example of someone who avoided paying taxes his whole life. I don't think other countries can't be as creative.
如果產(chǎn)品以零件的形式運(yùn)抵邊境，由一家主要使用機(jī)器人完成最后5%工作的小型中國企業(yè)在美國組裝會(huì)怎樣？沒有關(guān)稅也沒有美國的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)？也許...這是在為所有那些必須檢查這些規(guī)避關(guān)稅的"創(chuàng)意方式"的額外的公務(wù)員（由美國納稅人支付工資）創(chuàng)造新的工作。特朗普是一輩子都在避稅的最佳例子，我不認(rèn)為其他國家不會(huì)同樣有創(chuàng)意。
I think the entire world should putt tariffs on all American imports, including services, Youtube, Netflix, Google, Amazon. We should do it at 35%, and dump the US Dollar immediately….
我認(rèn)為全世界都應(yīng)該對所有的美國進(jìn)口商品征收關(guān)稅，包括服務(wù)、YouTube、Netflix、谷歌、亞馬遜。我們應(yīng)該征收35%的關(guān)稅并立即拋售美元...
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It's a complex world and if the US puts tariffs like these on products, then those countries are going to route around the United States like they routed around russia.
And then 4 years when Trump is gone, those countries supply chains won't need the United States anymore.
It will be a painful transition, but it will be a semi-permanent transition.
這個(gè)世界很復(fù)雜，如果美國對產(chǎn)品征收這樣的關(guān)稅，那么這些國家就會(huì)像繞過俄羅斯那樣繞過美國。等到4年后特朗普下臺(tái)，這些國家的供應(yīng)鏈將不再需要美國。雖然這將是一個(gè)痛苦的過渡，但會(huì)是一個(gè)半永久性的過渡。
hopefully not, but this could be the end of USD..eventually countries will find a way (another bill) to go around the USD...remember there are other manufacturing giants such as China, India, etc...this is only disadvantageous to USA
希望不會(huì)，但這可能是美元的終結(jié)...最終各國會(huì)找到方法（另一種貨幣）繞過美元...記住，還有其他制造業(yè)巨頭，如中國、印度等...這只會(huì)對美國不利。
US consumers will pay for the tariffs, my country(germany), especially the car industry, might lose a big market, but on long term it will be alright.
美國消費(fèi)者將支付關(guān)稅，我的國家（德國），特別是汽車行業(yè)，可能會(huì)失去一個(gè)大市場，但從長遠(yuǎn)來看會(huì)沒事的。
The tarriff plan will evidently lead to high inflation, the high inflation is a significant reason why most retirees have sleepless nights. The increase in prices of everyday items puts them at risk of running out of money. As prices rise, the amount of money retirees can withdraw from their retirement savings also increases.
關(guān)稅計(jì)劃顯然會(huì)導(dǎo)致高通脹，高通脹是大多數(shù)退休人士夜不能寐的重要原因。日常用品價(jià)格的上漲將使他們面臨資金耗盡的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。隨著物價(jià)上漲，退休人員從退休儲(chǔ)蓄中提取的金額也會(huì)增加。
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
物價(jià)上漲影響了我62歲退休、兼職工作并為未來儲(chǔ)蓄的計(jì)劃。我擔(dān)心那些經(jīng)歷過2008年金融危機(jī)的人是否比我現(xiàn)在的處境更輕松。股市波動(dòng)和收入下降的雙重壓力讓我焦慮，我不知道是否有足夠的資金退休。
That's exactly what my advisor, Grace, has been emphasizing. She really drilled home the diversification point. I used to be so heavily invested in tech stocks, thinking they were a sure thing. But Grace helped me branch out into real estate through REITs and even suggested a small allocation to commodities. She explained how different asset classes react to inflation differently, and how that mix can really help protect my portfolio. It felt a little scary at first, diversifying away from what I knew, but now, seeing how my portfolio has held up even with recent market fluctuations, I'm so grateful for her guidance. It really underscores the importance of not having all your eggs in one basket, like you said.
這正是我的顧問Grace一直強(qiáng)調(diào)的。她真的讓我深刻理解了分散投資的重要性。我以前過度投資科技股，認(rèn)為它們?nèi)f無一失。但Grace幫助我通過房地產(chǎn)投資信托基金(REITs)進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域，她甚至建議少量配置大宗商品。她解釋了不同資產(chǎn)類別對通脹的不同反應(yīng)，以及這種組合如何真正幫助保護(hù)我的投資組合。起初，遠(yuǎn)離我所熟悉的領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行分散投資讓我有點(diǎn)害怕，但現(xiàn)在看到我的投資組合即使在最近的市場波動(dòng)中也能保持穩(wěn)定，我非常感謝她的指導(dǎo)。這確實(shí)印證了你所說的"不要把所有雞蛋放在一個(gè)籃子里"的重要性。
Absolutely. I’d recommend reaching out to someone like Grace Lorraine Austin. She specializes in portfolio management and can help you build a solid financial strategy. With the economic uncertainties ahead, managing your finances wisely will be key.
絕對。我建議聯(lián)系像Grace Lorraine Austin這樣的人。她專長于投資組合管理，可以幫助你制定穩(wěn)健的財(cái)務(wù)策略。面對未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性，明智地理財(cái)將是關(guān)鍵。
I know almost nothing about history of economy, but it took me half hour to educate myself what tarifs did in history. Imported products became more expencive and local sellers used it to raise thier prices next to imported. Quite dumb...Who will pay? End customers aka citizens.
我對經(jīng)濟(jì)史幾乎一無所知，但我花了半小時(shí)自學(xué)了關(guān)稅在歷史上的作用。進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品變得更貴，本地賣家借此提高與進(jìn)口商品相近的價(jià)格。這相當(dāng)愚蠢...誰來買單？最終消費(fèi)者也就是公民買單。
Tariffs and deportations doesn't go along with each other. Because if Trump wants manufacturing back in the US you need a workforce. In this case cheap workforce to compete with China and others. This will play out catastrophic for the US economy and their citizens.
關(guān)稅和驅(qū)逐出境并不相配。因?yàn)槿绻乩势障胱屩圃鞓I(yè)回流美國，你需要?jiǎng)趧?dòng)力。在這種情況下，美國需要廉價(jià)的勞動(dòng)力來與中國等國家競爭，這對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)和其公民來說將是災(zāi)難性的。
Counties may capitulate in the short term, but they will actively seek alternative trading partners in the long term.
America is exercising its second amendment right by shooting itself in the foot.
各國可能會(huì)在短期內(nèi)屈服，但長期來看會(huì)積極尋找替代貿(mào)易伙伴。美國正在行使第二修正案賦予的權(quán)利——搬起石頭砸自己的腳。
The United States used to be a manufacturing country. Since the end of the Second World War this changed from a manufacturing center to a consumer center. All governments since the end of that conflict have been increasing the national debt, all of which has dued the US dollar to the point where, today, a US dollar is worth about three cents, yes three cents, compared with a 1971 US dollar. So, today all the consuming US public is consuming with dued dollars, hence, the increase in the sticker price of all goods and services. We simply need more of these dued dollars to buy anything.
The plan by the current US government to install these tariffs is a distraction from the real problem which is the US debt and the dued US dollar. Currently, the US debt to GDP ratio is well over 100% and so the only way to get this ratio down is either to pay down the debt or to increase the productivity of the nation. The former is out of the question; the second option will take maybe twenty to thirty years. The latter is not unrealistic since it really took over forty years to create this problem in the first place.
With regard to the stated deficit in trade with Canada this is a complete falsehood. If one were to include services as well as goods, then the deficit would be dramatically altered. In addition, the US imports over four million barrels of oil each day. This oil is shipped at deep discounts which allows the US refineries to sell the finished product on the open market generating huge profits. The statements by the US President are misleading, incomplete and false. We are living in dangerous times. The last thing a leader ought to be doing is turning on its trusted and reliable ally. He will pay for this and so will the American people. Just wait until they go the grocery store or the gas station.
This whole charade will not end well. Canada should immediately reform the inter-provincial trade barriers and should continue to forge new alliances around the world, including with China, India and the other BRICS nations. The US is in decline. The Americans do not appreciate what we, Canada, represent. Once the trust is broken it will never be restored. Canada should turn away from the whole misconception that the US is our friend and ally.
美國曾經(jīng)是一個(gè)制造業(yè)國家。自第二次世界大戰(zhàn)結(jié)束以來，它從一個(gè)制造中心變成了消費(fèi)中心。自那場沖突結(jié)束以來，所有政府都在增加國家債務(wù)，所有這些都使美元貶值到今天，與1971年的美元相比，一美元只值約三美分，是的，三美分。所以，今天所有消費(fèi)的美國公眾都在用貶值的美元消費(fèi)，因此，所有商品和服務(wù)的標(biāo)價(jià)都上漲了。我們只是需要更多這些貶值的美元來購買任何東西。
當(dāng)前美國政府實(shí)施這些關(guān)稅的計(jì)劃是為了轉(zhuǎn)移人們對真正問題的注意力，即美國債務(wù)和美元的貶值。目前，美國的債務(wù)與GDP的比率遠(yuǎn)超過100%，因此降低這一比率的唯一的方法是要么償還債務(wù)，要么提高國家的生產(chǎn)力。前者是不可能的；第二個(gè)選項(xiàng)可能需要二十到三十年。后者并非不切實(shí)際，因?yàn)樽畛踔圃爝@個(gè)問題確實(shí)花了四十多年時(shí)間。
關(guān)于與加拿大的所謂貿(mào)易逆差完全是謊言。如果把服務(wù)和商品都計(jì)算在內(nèi)，那么逆差將會(huì)發(fā)生巨大的變化。此外，美國每天進(jìn)口超過四百萬桶石油。這些石油以深度折扣運(yùn)輸，使美國煉油廠能夠在公開市場上銷售成品并獲得巨額利潤。美國總統(tǒng)的聲明具有誤導(dǎo)性、不完整且虛假。我們生活在危險(xiǎn)的時(shí)代。領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人最不應(yīng)該做的就是背棄值得信賴的可靠的盟友。他將為此付出代價(jià)，美國人民也將如此，就等著看他們?nèi)ルs貨店或加油站時(shí)的反應(yīng)吧。
這整個(gè)鬧劇不會(huì)有好結(jié)果。加拿大應(yīng)立即改革省際貿(mào)易壁壘，并應(yīng)繼續(xù)與世界各地建立新的聯(lián)盟，包括中國、印度和其他金磚國家。美國正在衰落。美國人不欣賞我們加拿大所代表的意義。一旦信任破裂，就永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)恢復(fù)。加拿大應(yīng)該摒棄"美國是我們的朋友和盟友"這一整個(gè)誤解。
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Ever since NAFTA went into effect in 1994, companies have moved manufacturing to Mexico with the aim of exporting goods to the US. When you reimpose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, you're going to see less of that. Some companies will find it cheaper to manufacture in the US while others will find it cheaper to simply pay the tariff. Either way it lessens the loophole.
自1994年《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》生效以來，公司紛紛將制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移到墨西哥，目的是向美國出口商品。當(dāng)你對墨西哥和加拿大重新征收關(guān)稅時(shí)，這種情況將會(huì)減少。一些公司會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)在美國生產(chǎn)更便宜，而另一些公司則會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)直接支付關(guān)稅更便宜。無論哪種方式，都會(huì)減少這個(gè)漏洞。
Challenging times ahead. The basics of economics and civics are essential to Democracy. Let's hope more people get curious and become active. The average consumer will pay for this, not the wealthy.
充滿挑戰(zhàn)的時(shí)代即將到來。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和公民學(xué)的基礎(chǔ)知識(shí)對民主至關(guān)重要。希望更多人產(chǎn)生興趣并積極參與。普通消費(fèi)者而不是富人將為此買單。
It's time to put no flies on around the United States. Call shipping house to stop at the 200-mile limit. No shipson in, no ship's out. All crossporting has to stop at the Canadian American border.
是時(shí)候在美國周圍設(shè)置禁飛區(qū)了。通知航運(yùn)公司在200英里界限處停止。沒有船只進(jìn)出，所有跨境運(yùn)輸都必須在美加邊境停止。
End of the day it's upto common people. Making things in USA is expensive. Some examples r U want a low cost Chinese car or use motorbike. Big Chinese TV or small less feature tv made in USA. Top end mobile made in China or entry level mobile made in USA.
歸根結(jié)底這取決于普通人。在美國制造東西很貴。舉例來說：你是想要一輛低成本的中國汽車還是摩托車？大屏幕中國電視還是功能較少的小型美國制造電視？中國制造的高端手機(jī)還是美國制造的入門級手機(jī)？
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You can't deny that we trade with other countries at a deficit. Why should we stay in the position? So how can we negotiate fair trade agreements without tariffs? Genuinely curious. I want America to be the undisputed economic powerhouse of the world.
你不能否認(rèn)我們與其他國家存在貿(mào)易逆差。我們?yōu)槭裁匆３诌@種狀態(tài)？那么沒有關(guān)稅，我們?nèi)绾握勁泄劫Q(mào)易協(xié)定？我真心好奇。我希望美國成為世界上無可爭議的經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)國。
First thing Canada should do is stop importing toilet tissue to America, and then Denmark should stop selling Ozempic. I'm not too sure if Trump has been watching Russia or not, but life goes on without America.
加拿大應(yīng)該做的第一件事是停止從美國進(jìn)口衛(wèi)生紙，然后丹麥應(yīng)該停止銷售Ozempic。我不太確定特朗普是否一直在關(guān)注俄羅斯，但沒有美國，生活照樣繼續(xù)。
I don’t know if ppl pretend to be dumb when it comes down to Trump’s tariffs strategy or they are actually dumb, I mean you can’t see the forest for the trees, it’s not simply about making stuff more expensive but about changing the entire system on how to trade with countries getting richer and richer at the expense of the crazy consumption of USA citizens, so if things are done properly the only winner will be USA and subsequently other economies globally and moreover it plays an important role in geopolitical strength. China got so crazy rich by putting strict rules on foreign investors wanting to do business in their country for instance car manufacturers, they had to become allies with a local car manufacturer in order to produce their cars in china, now china sells more EVs than tesla, because they managed to get ahold of intel, let’s not talk about electronics or even AI.
我不知道人們在特朗普的關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)略上是裝傻還是真傻，我的意思是你們一葉障目不見泰山，這不僅是為了讓東西變得更貴，而是為了改變整個(gè)貿(mào)易體系。那些國家以美國公民瘋狂消費(fèi)為代價(jià)變得越來越富有，所以如果處理得當(dāng)，唯一的贏家將是美國，隨后是全球其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體，而且這在地緣政治實(shí)力上也發(fā)揮著重要的作用。中國變得如此富有，是因?yàn)樗鼘ν鈬顿Y者制定了嚴(yán)格的規(guī)定，比如汽車制造商，他們必須與當(dāng)?shù)仄囍圃焐毯腺Y才能在中國生產(chǎn)汽車，現(xiàn)在中國銷售的電動(dòng)汽車比特斯拉還多，因?yàn)樗麄冊O(shè)法掌握了核心技術(shù)，更不用說電子產(chǎn)品甚至人工智能了。
We fought a revolution over tariffs but we didn't call them tariffs we called them taxes back then as that was the primary means of taxation then. I mean one of the most important events in American history was the Boston Tea Party and they were literally protesting a Tea tariff. It didn't stop being a tax just because we call it something else now.
我們曾經(jīng)為關(guān)稅進(jìn)行過一場革命，但當(dāng)時(shí)我們不稱之為關(guān)稅，而是稱之為稅收，因?yàn)槟鞘钱?dāng)時(shí)的主要征稅手段。我是說美國歷史上最重要的事件之一就是波士頓傾茶事件，他們實(shí)際上是在抗議茶葉關(guān)稅，它并沒有因?yàn)槲覀儸F(xiàn)在叫它別的名字就不再是稅收。
I understand how tariffing affects the people within the country imposing tariffs, what I am unclear about then, is why would the other country need to counter-tariff at all? Seems like there is still some net benefit to the tariffs? Legit question.
我理解關(guān)稅如何影響征收關(guān)稅的國家的人民，但我不明白的是為什么其他國家需要反制關(guān)稅？似乎關(guān)稅仍然有一些凈收益？這是一個(gè)合理的問題。
No problem. People that have assets will just be richer while everyone is just trying to make ends meet. Look at what happen recently. You own something you automatically made money. Rich people enabling rich people.
沒問題。有資產(chǎn)的人只會(huì)變得更富有，而其他人則只是在努力維持生計(jì)?？纯醋罱l(fā)生了什么？你擁有某樣?xùn)|西，你就自動(dòng)賺錢了。富人在幫助富人。
America needs to include tariffs on companies that outsource jobs to countries like India and the Philippines. Strengthening U.S. borders with a permanent military or National Guard presence is essential for national security.
美國需要對將工作崗位外包給印度和菲律賓等國家的公司征收關(guān)稅。加強(qiáng)美國邊境，永久駐軍或國民警衛(wèi)隊(duì)對國家安全至關(guān)重要。
If trump massively increase tariff then other countries can't massively increase tariff coz then their products comes in a price range of local made products which can create more competition and they risk of selling less imported products.
如果特朗普大幅提高關(guān)稅，那么其他國家就不能大幅提高關(guān)稅，因?yàn)槟菢铀麄兊漠a(chǎn)品就會(huì)進(jìn)入本地制造產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格區(qū)間，這會(huì)造成更多競爭，他們將面臨進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品銷量下降的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
I understand that tariffs cause prices to go up. What I don't understand is why a country would retaliate by causing the prices to go up on their own people. What Canada should do is an embargo. Choose a product like Jack Daniels for example, from a Trump friendly state, and completely embargo that product. Coordinate with other countries to target specific products and shut them down one by one. That would hurt. Also, tariffs are used to try to cause people to stop buying products outside of their country and make it less expensive (comparably) to buy from within. Look at the labor force available in the US. It's pretty low and soon to get lower. That means companies will have to pay more to draw workers away and other companies will have to pay more to retain workers. This causes inflation within a country, which is how we got where we are now. Break the cycle and use the embargo instead. At least take a vote and let the people decide.
我理解關(guān)稅會(huì)導(dǎo)致價(jià)格上漲。我不明白的是為什么一個(gè)國家要通過讓自己的人民承受價(jià)格上漲來進(jìn)行報(bào)復(fù)。加拿大應(yīng)該做的是禁運(yùn)。以杰克丹尼為例，我們可以挑選一個(gè)來自對特朗普友好的州的產(chǎn)品，然后完全禁運(yùn)該產(chǎn)品。與其他國家協(xié)調(diào)，針對特定的產(chǎn)品，一個(gè)一個(gè)地關(guān)閉它們。那會(huì)很痛。此外，關(guān)稅是用來試圖讓人們停止購買國外產(chǎn)品，使購買國內(nèi)產(chǎn)品相對不那么昂貴。看看美國的勞動(dòng)力，他們現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)很少了，而且很快就會(huì)更少。這意味著公司將不得不支付更多工資來吸引工人，其他公司將不得不支付更多工資來留住工人。這會(huì)導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)通貨膨脹，這就是我們現(xiàn)在的處境。打破這個(gè)循環(huán)，改用禁運(yùn)。至少應(yīng)該進(jìn)行投票，讓人民決定。
Like him or not Trump is based. America has gone far and beyond to provide the infrastructure for global service economies that placed the West amongst developed nations, most prominently post-WW2. But since the '70s/80s, a new economic philosophy democratised value chains through new capital markets that allowed unforeseen economies to take over all aspects of competencies gained through outsourcing. If you're short sighted you'd view it as a tax on "you", but the reality is Trump's saying buckle your boots we're opening up our own shop. Its ironic and scary to see because as Clinton said, "no country can escape the global economy," an economy in which America is the centre. I need a popcorn bucket and bunker to last 4 years.
不管你喜不喜歡，特朗普是有根據(jù)的。美國不遺余力地為全球服務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)提供了基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，使西方躋身發(fā)達(dá)國家之列，最突出的是在二戰(zhàn)后。但自上世紀(jì)70/80年代以來，一種新的經(jīng)濟(jì)哲學(xué)通過新的資本市場使價(jià)值鏈民主化，讓意想不到的經(jīng)濟(jì)體接管了通過外包獲得的所有能力方面。如果你目光短淺，你會(huì)認(rèn)為這是對"你"的征稅，但現(xiàn)實(shí)是特朗普說系好靴子，我們要開自己的店了。這既諷刺又可怕，因?yàn)檎缈肆诸D所說，"沒有一個(gè)國家能逃脫全球經(jīng)濟(jì)"，而美國是這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的中心。我需要一桶爆米花和掩體來度過這4年。
US has endemic trade deficit, an unemployment . Simply, it tells that American consume more than what they consume! Putting tariffs will not solve the problem, since nearshoring and re-industrializing needs workers, which are not there. US do not needs to reduce it's import, it needs to increase the value of what it export! This tells that US manufacturing is not that productive if it cannot compete against most other nations in its own battleground... Furthermore, if US has been capable to sustain protracted trade deficit without impoverishing itseld, it is because the deficit is counterbalanced by the influx of capitals from foreign countries. And this is where US outperform anybody else, and shall focus on.
美國存在長期的貿(mào)易逆差和失業(yè)問題。簡單地說，這表明美國人的消費(fèi)超過了他們的生產(chǎn)能力！征收關(guān)稅并不能解決問題，因?yàn)榻锻獍驮俟I(yè)化需要工人，而這些工人并不存在。美國不需要減少進(jìn)口，它需要增加出口的價(jià)值！這說明如果美國制造業(yè)無法在本土戰(zhàn)場上與大多數(shù)其他國家競爭，那么它的生產(chǎn)力就不高...此外，如果美國能夠在不使自己貧困化的情況下維持長期的貿(mào)易逆差，那是因?yàn)槟娌畋粊碜酝鈬馁Y本流入所抵消。而這正是美國勝過其他任何國家的地方，美國也應(yīng)該集中精力于此。