QA:關(guān)稅國家能否團(tuán)結(jié)一致?lián)魯√乩势眨?/h1>
Can tariff countries beat Trump by acting as one?
譯文簡介
單一來看，美國是最大的。但他們比歐盟小，僅歐盟+中國就可以欺負(fù)美國到月球再回來。他們甚至不需要其他國家的加入，盡管其中大多數(shù)可能都會加入。
正文翻譯
Can tariff countries beat Trump by acting as one?
關(guān)稅國家能否團(tuán)結(jié)一致?lián)魯√乩势眨?br />
關(guān)稅國家能否團(tuán)結(jié)一致?lián)魯√乩势眨?br />
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This is what the world economy looks like, in the broadest overview.
從最廣泛的角度來看，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)就是如此：
USA might be the biggest single player, but they are smaller than the EU, and just the EU+China can bully the USA to the Moon and back. They won’t even need the others to be onboard, even though most of them probably will be.
單一來看，美國是最大的，但他們比歐盟小，僅歐盟+中國就可以欺負(fù)美國到月球再回來。他們甚至不需要其他國家的加入，盡管其中大多數(shù)可能都會加入。
And…It’s not like the US can avoid paying whatever tariffs get placed on us. There’s a lot of stuff we neither have nor produce. We’ll buy less but pay more.
而且……美國也逃避不了加征在我們身上的關(guān)稅。有很多東西，我們既沒有，也無法生產(chǎn)。我們將買得更少，但付得更多。
You'll be paying the Trump Tax to finance Tax-Cuts for billionaires.
That's what Americans voted for.
Ironically, by the time Trump is finished, he might be the only billionaire left
你們將支付特朗普稅來資助億萬富翁的減稅計(jì)劃。
這正是美國人投票支持的。
諷刺的是，等到特朗普任期結(jié)束后，他可能就成了唯一剩下的億萬富翁了。
Nah, I think the opposite will be true. Because of Trump, every American will become a billionaire… after all, rapid and out-of-control inflation would duate the dollar so quickly that a billion dollars might buy you a loaf of bread in four years!
不，我認(rèn)為情況恰恰相反。因?yàn)樘乩势?，每個美國人都會成為億萬富翁……畢竟，快速失控的通貨膨脹會讓美元迅速貶值，四年后，十億美元可能會給你買一條面包！
Here is an example of such polices working out-
OPEC might drop the petrodollar and then it'll happen pretty quick.
以下是此類政策發(fā)揮作用的一個例子：
石油輸出國組織可能會放棄石油美元，而且這種情況很快就會發(fā)生。
Sup, 10^16% (10000000000000000%) inflation dropped this bad boy back after WW2 here in Hungary. That’s a hundred million trillion peng?.
100 000 000 000 000 000 000. 100 quintillion. 20 zeroes.
Not even the most recent and well memed Zimbabwean dollar could match our record inflation before the current Hungarian Forint was introduced.
哎呀，二戰(zhàn)后匈牙利的通貨膨脹率高達(dá)10^16%（100000000000000000%），這是一億億比索。
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100000000000000000000。100個千萬億。20個零。
即使是最新發(fā)行的、被廣泛接受的津巴布韋元，也無法與匈牙利福林發(fā)行前的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄通脹率相提并論。
I am not an economy major.
If dollar inflation speed up, does it mean dollar will stop being the international currency? Then, furthermore speeds up dollar duation.
A positive feedback process.
我不是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)專業(yè)的。
如果美元通脹加速，是不是意味著美元將不再是國際貨幣？進(jìn)而加速美元貶值。
這是一個正反饋過程。
I didn’t vote for it, but yes.
我不想如此，但是是的。
I know you didn't, but here we are.
我知道你不想，但還是會來。
Weeks before Trump’s announcement, the EU offered him a zero for zero tariff trade deal. He rejected it. He doesn’t want reciprocal tariffs, he is deluded that he can bully every nation on earth into a deal only advantageous to the USA.
特朗普宣布這一決定的幾周前，歐盟曾向他提出一項(xiàng)零對零關(guān)稅的貿(mào)易協(xié)議。但他拒絕了。他不想要對等關(guān)稅，他自欺欺人地認(rèn)為可以脅迫地球上所有國家達(dá)成一項(xiàng)只對美國有利的協(xié)議。
So they only offer3f zero for zero when they knew tarriffs were coming? Why was it okay for them to have increased tarriffs on us for decades but when we respond its some vile act against an ally. Europe's double standards are ridiculous. Also the eu is smaller than the US economy.
所以，他們明知道加征關(guān)稅的政策要來了，還是只提供一個零對零關(guān)稅的貿(mào)易協(xié)議。
為什么他們幾十年來對我們不斷加征關(guān)稅就沒問題，但我們這么做，就是用卑鄙的手段報(bào)復(fù)盟友？
歐洲的雙重標(biāo)準(zhǔn)簡直荒謬。而且歐盟的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模還不如美國。
Here's the EU's tarriff regime as of 2023. If I'm reading figure 1 correctly, about 3/4's of all goods from the US had no tariff on them at all.
這是截至 2023 年的歐盟關(guān)稅制度：鏈接。
如果我沒有看錯，那么大約四分之三的美國商品根本沒有關(guān)稅。
The numbers Trump is basing his 'indipendence day' tariffs on, of course, have nothing to do with any tariff levied by anyone. They're based on the 'trade deficit'- basically, how much more we spend on someone elses goods than they spend on ours. Because Trump thinks that if we buy more from a nation than they buy from us, that we're somehow loosing at trade, and Trump firmly believes that if he's loosing, someone is cheating.
我讀到過，許多歐盟國家確實(shí)征收“增值稅”，這基本上是針對所有商品（進(jìn)口和國產(chǎn)都包括）征收的銷售稅，用于資助其社會項(xiàng)目。
這并非關(guān)稅——關(guān)稅是專門針對進(jìn)口商品征收的稅。特朗普“獨(dú)立日”關(guān)稅所依據(jù)的數(shù)字，當(dāng)然與任何人征收的任何關(guān)稅都無關(guān)。
它們是基于“貿(mào)易逆差”的——基本上就是我們在別人商品上的支出比他們在我們商品上的支出多多少。
因?yàn)樘乩势照J(rèn)為，如果我們從一個國家購買的商品比他們從我們這里購買的多，那么我們在貿(mào)易上就遭受了損失，而特朗普堅(jiān)信，如果他遭受了損失，那一定就是有人在作弊。
What nonsense! And the rates they displayed as the alleged tariffs were completely wrong. They included even VAT and such to bloat the numbers. We pay VAT on all products, also European ones. The most incompetent government ever! Ridiculous!
Average tariffs with the EU were at 1% both ways! It has always been a fair deal. Only an idiot would touch that. Oh, wait …
真是胡扯！他們所謂的關(guān)稅稅率也完全是錯誤的。他們甚至把增值稅之類的都算進(jìn)去了，就是為了夸大數(shù)字。我們的所有產(chǎn)品都要繳納增值稅，包括歐洲產(chǎn)品。真是史上最無能的政府！簡直荒謬！
與歐盟的平均關(guān)稅是雙向1%！這一直都是公平的。只有傻瓜才會觸碰這個。哦，等等……
EU had unfair tariffs against the US, it’s a fact. We are talking 5% type ranges
歐盟對美國征收了不公平的關(guān)稅，這是事實(shí)。我們說的是5%左右的關(guān)稅范圍。
But they arent reciprocal. UK has a 10% car tariff on US cars, US now has a 25% on UK lol…
Cmon rub them brain cell together!! Lets do some simple math…
As usual the guy makes up shit and the cult follows, hoping they can lick up a lil of that diarrhea running down his leg lol
但它們不是對等的。英國對美國汽車征收10%的關(guān)稅，美國現(xiàn)在對英國汽車征收25%的關(guān)稅，哈哈……
來吧，把他們的腦細(xì)胞揉在一起??！我們來做個簡單的算術(shù)……
像往常一樣，這家伙胡編亂造，邪教組織也跟著編造，希望能舔到他腿上流下來的一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)腹瀉物，哈哈
So why was Trump so upset when China applied reciprocal tariffs? Surely this is what winning looks like?
那么，中國實(shí)施對等關(guān)稅時(shí)，特朗普為何如此惱火？這難道不就是勝利的象征嗎？
Given that his ‘reciprocal tariffs’ are based on the trade deficit with each country listed I'd argue there's nothing ‘reciprocal’ about them at all.
It's also a ridiculous notion to suggest that the US was some tarriff free haven.
Going all the way back to 2014 and you will joke that the duty free tariff line hovered around 50%.
Shit, Trump slapped a 25% tariff on steel and a 50% tariff on washing machines during his first term.
This is nothing more than a ploy to short small business, gut domestic competition, increase prices and allow the wealthy to monopolise and privatise your nation.
鑒于他的“對等關(guān)稅”是基于與每個列出國家的貿(mào)易逆差，我認(rèn)為它們根本就沒有任何“對等”可言。
認(rèn)為美國是某種免關(guān)稅天堂的想法也是荒謬至極。
回溯到2014年，你也許還能開玩笑的說：免關(guān)稅的線大約是在50%左右。
媽的，特朗普在第一任期就對鋼鐵征收了25%的關(guān)稅，對洗衣機(jī)征收了50%的關(guān)稅。
這不過是一個陰謀，目的是做空小企業(yè)，削弱國內(nèi)競爭，抬高價(jià)格，讓富人壟斷和私有化你的國家。
Wow that sounds just like every single MSM talking point all of which didn't happen. Only an idiot would buy the wild unhinged conspiracy theories put out by the propaganda wing of the democrat party.
哇，聽起來就像主流媒體說的每一個觀點(diǎn)都根本不成立。只有傻瓜才會相信民主黨宣傳部門散布的那些瘋狂的陰謀論。
Prove your rebuttal.
證明你的反駁。
Then why did he not do reciprocal tariffs instead of the completely crazy tariffs he is imposing?
那么為什么他不實(shí)行對等關(guān)稅，而是實(shí)行完全瘋狂的關(guān)稅呢？
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Have you even bothered to look at the tariff rates of other countries? I would say no based off your comment. They have taken advantage of the US for decades. Lopsided and bad for the US I encourage you to actually check into it. Not just Google it, look at the government websites.
你有沒有想過去看看其他國家的關(guān)稅稅率？根據(jù)你的評論，我覺得你沒有看過。他們幾十年來一直在占美國的便宜。這種做法既不公平，又對美國不利。我建議你認(rèn)真查一下。別光谷歌，去看看政府網(wǎng)站就知道了。
I have looked and it confirms that Trump is an out and out liar.
He claimed China had a trillion dollar deficit, it is about a quarter of that.
He held up his silly card which claimed to show tariffs charged by other countries, a not oneof the figures was true or even close because they weren’t tariffs at all but trade deficits. Then they weren’t even accurate trade deficits because they did not include services where the USA in most cases has a surplus and in many cases a large surplus. He has reneged on trade deals with Mexico and Canada that he himself signed off.
He blames other countries for being ‘horrible’ in his usual childish way, but take Thailand, Nike go there and set up a factory employing locals at absolute poverty wages, now he is going to put on large tariffs a probably put them out of work! So who is being ‘horrible’ to who? For no reason the USA will never produce shoes at rock bottom prices. Trump is a disgraceful liar, and you should be ashamed of what he is doing, and even more ashamed that you have fallen for the idiot’s stupid lies.
我查了一下，證實(shí)了特朗普是個徹頭徹尾的騙子。
他聲稱中國有1萬億美元的貿(mào)易逆差，而美國只有這個數(shù)字的四分之一。
他舉起那張愚蠢的卡片，聲稱上面顯示了其他國家征收的關(guān)稅，但這些數(shù)字沒有一個是真的，甚至相差甚遠(yuǎn)，因?yàn)槟歉静皇顷P(guān)稅，而是貿(mào)易逆差。而且，這些甚至不是準(zhǔn)確的貿(mào)易逆差，因?yàn)樗鼈儧]有包括服務(wù)業(yè)，而美國在大多數(shù)情況下都有順差，而且在很多情況下順差巨大。他已經(jīng)違背了他自己簽署的與墨西哥和加拿大的貿(mào)易協(xié)議。
他以他慣常的幼稚方式指責(zé)其他國家“糟糕透頂”，就拿泰國來說，耐克在那里建廠，雇傭當(dāng)?shù)厝?，工資卻低得可憐，現(xiàn)在他卻要征收高額關(guān)稅，這很可能讓他們失業(yè)！那么，到底是誰對誰“糟糕透頂”呢？美國永遠(yuǎn)不可能以最低價(jià)生產(chǎn)鞋子，這毫無道理。特朗普是一個可恥的騙子，你應(yīng)該為他的所作所為感到羞恥，更應(yīng)該為自己相信了這個白癡的愚蠢謊言而感到羞恥。
No I havent fallen for the idiots lies. I don't believe you, see
不，我沒有被那些白癡謊言欺騙。我不相信你，明白嗎？
I am in Sweden. USA is our third biggest export market. All experts and politicians involved in the trade here claim that Trumps tariff figures are false and not based on reality. We “do not rip you off” as Trump claims. Our people cannot change Trump’s or US voters and therefore have no incentive to lie about it. We just have to deal with it. The problem is to deal with it in negotiations when there are no fact based numbers from the US administration. As other people here have pointed out, there might be a trade deficit for goods, but the USA is a very big exporter of high tech services (Google, Amazon, consulting, etc). They should count, but Trump doesn't take them into account. That is how trade work: countries that are good at something should do what they are best at. The USA are good at many things, especially advanced services, but not low level consumer goods or many raw materials.
All that aside, will the USA in the long run benefit from high tariffs? History tells us that high tariffs don't work and lead to recession and inflation. A world recession will not benifit the USA either. Tesla cars for example are assembled in the USA but almost all parts come from abroad. What will happen to the final customer price do you think if all parts become 20–100% more expensive? I think Trump just is having a ball bullying everyone else around without regard for anyone else, including the US citizens. It is not America First, it is My Ego First.
我在瑞典。美國是我們的第三大出口市場。這里所有參與貿(mào)易的專家和政客都聲稱特朗普的關(guān)稅數(shù)據(jù)是虛假的，并非基于事實(shí)。我們不會像特朗普聲稱的那樣“敲詐你們”。我們的人民無法改變特朗普或美國的選民，因此沒有動機(jī)就此撒謊。我們只能應(yīng)對它。問題在于，在美國政府沒有提供基于事實(shí)的數(shù)據(jù)的情況下，如何在談判中應(yīng)對它？
正如其他人指出的那樣，商品貿(mào)易可能存在逆差，但美國是高科技服務(wù)（谷歌、亞馬遜、咨詢等）的出口大國。這些服務(wù)應(yīng)該被考慮在內(nèi)，但特朗普卻沒有考慮到它們。
貿(mào)易就是這樣運(yùn)作的：擅長某事的國家應(yīng)該做自己最擅長的事情。美國擅長很多東西，尤其是高端服務(wù)，但不擅長低端消費(fèi)品或許多原材料。
除此之外，從長遠(yuǎn)來看，美國會從高關(guān)稅中受益嗎？歷史告訴我們，高關(guān)稅行不通，會導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和通貨膨脹。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退也不會讓美國受益。
比如特斯拉汽車，雖然在美國組裝，但幾乎所有零部件都來自國外。如果所有零部件都漲價(jià)20%到100%，你覺得最終的售價(jià)會怎樣？
我覺得特朗普簡直是在耍流氓，欺負(fù)別人，完全不顧及別人，包括美國公民。這不是“美國優(yōu)先”，而是“我的自我優(yōu)先”。
Tesla is the most America made car made in America 86% Ameeican made parts unlike the next most American made car at 83% made by Ford. The tariff rates are public knowledge just look them up on the government websites.
特斯拉是美國制造比例最高的汽車，其零部件86%來自美國本土，而排名第二的福特汽車83%的零部件來自美國本土。關(guān)稅稅率是公開的，只要在政府網(wǎng)站上查一下就知道了。
You can't even relay accurate figures when you have half a point…
Tesla Reveals Percentage of Parts Made in North America for 2025 Models
Also the ‘next most American made’ vehicle is a Honda…
當(dāng)你只有0.5分的時(shí)候，你甚至無法準(zhǔn)確的傳達(dá)數(shù)字……
鏈接：特斯拉公布2025款車型北美制造零部件比例
此外，“第二大在美國制造”的汽車是本田……
OK. Tesla was a bad example, sorry. But that was not really my point specifically. The point was that the production lines are international whether it is final parts or raw materials. However Ford imports most parts as well as General motors. The tariffs that Trump presented are not accurate and mix things up. Sweden has a value added tax of 25%. That is added to imported goods as well as domestic. That is not a tariff.
The tariff that he yesterday changed to, 10%, for most countries will function as a federal VAT (since it is new) on all imported goods since it is universal. And it will be used to finance tax cuts for the richest in USA.
好的。特斯拉是個不好的例子，抱歉。但這不是我真正的重點(diǎn)。重點(diǎn)是，無論是最終零件還是原材料，生產(chǎn)線都是國際化的。然而，福特和通用汽車一樣，大部分零部件都是進(jìn)口的。
特朗普提出的關(guān)稅并不準(zhǔn)確，而且混淆了事實(shí)。瑞典的增值稅是25%。這既適用于進(jìn)口商品，也適用于國內(nèi)商品。這不是關(guān)稅。
他昨天將大多數(shù)國家的關(guān)稅改為10%，由于它是新稅，因此將作為所有進(jìn)口商品的聯(lián)邦增值稅（因?yàn)樗峭ㄓ玫模?。這筆錢將用于資助美國富人的減稅。
Advice, changing someone’s opinion is more impactful without name calling
建議：改變某人的觀點(diǎn)比辱罵更有影響力
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Poor impoverished little USA. No wonder they need to blackmail everyone into giving them money.
可憐窮困弱小的美國。難怪他們需要敲詐勒索所有人給他們錢。
The do not ?blackmail others to give them money“. It is not other countries who pay the tariffs. It is their own citizens. Sellers will put the tariff on top of the sale price.
他們沒有“敲詐勒索所有人給他們錢”。支付關(guān)稅的不是其他國家，而是他們自己的公民。賣家會把關(guān)稅加到售價(jià)上。
True enough. We are stupid as hell.
確實(shí)如此。我們真是蠢透了。
I think you are referring to the UK, that past it colonial power whose navy peaked in 1850. No power at all today. Good luck now;
我想你指的是英國，那個曾經(jīng)的殖民強(qiáng)國，其海軍在1850年達(dá)到了頂峰。如今卻毫無實(shí)力。祝你好運(yùn)！
And yet still considered 3rd globally for soft power. Probably 2nd soon. Weird that huh.
但其軟實(shí)力在全球仍排在第三?？赡芎芸炀蜁诺诙?。很奇怪吧？
Canada + Mexico together is a fair sized slice of the Americas.
加拿大和墨西哥加起來占了美洲相當(dāng)大的一部分地盤。
Trumps tariffs will backfire on the American people. They will not be able to buy the things that they want because other countries won't pay his tariffs and will sell their goods elsewhere
特朗普的關(guān)稅將對美國人民產(chǎn)生反作用。他們將無法購買自己想要的東西，因?yàn)槠渌麌也粫Ц端年P(guān)稅，而是會把商品賣到其他地方。