QA：關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)中會(huì)出現(xiàn)明顯的贏家嗎？還是只會(huì)有輸家？
Will there be a clear winner in the tariffs wars, or will there be only losers?
譯文簡介
贏家將會(huì)有很多。以下是我腦海中浮現(xiàn)的幾個(gè)：
正文翻譯
Will there be a clear winner in the tariffs wars, or will there be only losers?
關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)中會(huì)出現(xiàn)明顯的贏家嗎？還是只會(huì)有輸家？
評(píng)論翻譯
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There will be many winners. Here's a few off the top of my head:
American repo men.
American bankruptcy lawyers.
Cargill, Monsanto, and other Americans agricultural giants, because they'll be buying up farms dirt cheap.
BYD, Geely, and other Chinese car manufacturers, since the US is destroying its own exports.
Dassault, Rheinmetall, and other European arms companies, as America is no longer trusted.
Russia, Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan, and Cuba, because everyone is basically sanctioned now.
European and Canadian universities and hospitals, thanks to the academics and doctors fleeing the US.
Canadian media companies, as there is suddenly a massive investment of international financing for Canadian film and television to fill the void of cancelled America media.
贏家將會(huì)有很多。以下是我腦海中浮現(xiàn)的幾個(gè)：
美國回購人員。
美國破產(chǎn)律師。
嘉吉、孟山都和其他美國農(nóng)業(yè)巨頭，因?yàn)樗麄儗⒁詷O低的價(jià)格收購農(nóng)場。
比亞迪、吉利和其他中國汽車制造商，因?yàn)槊绹诖輾ё约旱某隹诋a(chǎn)品。
達(dá)索、萊茵金屬和其他歐洲軍火公司，因?yàn)槊绹辉偈艿叫湃巍?br /> 俄羅斯、伊朗、朝鮮、阿富汗和古巴，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在基本上所有國家都受到了制裁。
歐洲和加拿大的大學(xué)和醫(yī)院，這要?dú)w功于逃離美國的學(xué)者和醫(yī)生。
加拿大媒體公司，因?yàn)橥蝗怀霈F(xiàn)了大量國際融資，用于加拿大的電影和電視，以填補(bǔ)美國媒體被取消的空白。
Companies mining and dealing in gold.
China, Australia, Russia, and Canada, as the world's largest gold producing countries.
Canadian gas exporters, who are now free to sell LNG to Japan at market prices instead of the US at massive discounts.
China, because they will own the moon, and control the world's He3 fuel source for centuries.
Conspiracy theorists, who will sell their nonsense to morons blaming the economic collapse on reptileans.
Houthi, Al Qaeda, Hamas, and other terrorist organizations that have been suppressed by the US military.
The drug cartels, because their will be far less border security after the economy collapses.
歐元，因?yàn)樗窍乱粋€(gè)全球儲(chǔ)備貨幣。
從事黃金開采和交易的公司。
中國、澳大利亞、俄羅斯和加拿大，是世界上最大的黃金生產(chǎn)國。
加拿大天然氣出口商，現(xiàn)在可以自由地以市場價(jià)格向日本出售液化天然氣，而不是以大幅折扣向美國出售。
中國，因?yàn)樗麄儗碛性虑颍⒃谖磥韼讉€(gè)世紀(jì)內(nèi)控制世界氦氣燃料來源。
陰謀論者，他們會(huì)把他們的無稽之談賣給白癡，把經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰歸咎于爬行動(dòng)物。
胡塞武裝、基地組織、哈馬斯和其他被美國軍方鎮(zhèn)壓的恐怖組織。
販毒集團(tuán)，因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)崩潰后，邊境安全將大大減弱。
Putin and his merry band of Russian oligarchs.
Musk and his merry band of America oligarchs.
Kim and his weird sister.
MERCOSUR, because every country in South America is going to trying to join.
Historians, because people will finally listen to them and buy their books.
美國電視布道家，因?yàn)槊總€(gè)人都會(huì)感到恐懼。
普京和他的俄羅斯寡頭團(tuán)伙。
馬斯克和他的美國寡頭團(tuán)伙。
金將軍和他古怪的妹妹。
南方共同市場，因?yàn)槟厦乐薜拿總€(gè)國家都想加入。
歷史學(xué)家，因?yàn)槿藗冏罱K會(huì)聽他們說話，買他們的書。
I’ll add, within the US, people who can repair and rebuild durable goods such as power tools, cars, and consumer electronics.
Americans won’t be able to afford new cars. If one can take an old car (either US or non-US origin), or a “totaled” car, and rebuild it to the point where it’s pretty good and should last for another 10 years, that will be a very relevant set of skills. Likewise with laptops and mobile phones.
Refurbished goods that are “good enough, I guess” will be the way of the future for those unfortunate to live within the current US.
To be fair this isn’t all bad: in the long run humanity needs to shift to a more sustainable civilization with more of a circular economy, or steady state economy as it is also called. Some experiences and lessons learned by Americans making do with what already exists, rather than building and buying new, may prove valuable to humanity as a whole.
我要補(bǔ)充的是，在美國，能夠修理和翻新電動(dòng)工具、汽車和消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品等耐用品的人并不多。
美國人將買不起新車。如果有人能把一輛舊車（無論產(chǎn)自美國還是其他國家）或“報(bào)廢”汽車翻新到相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)的狀態(tài)，還能再用10年，那將是一套非常實(shí)用的技能。筆記本電腦和手機(jī)也是如此。
對(duì)于那些不幸生活在當(dāng)今美國的人來說，那些“我猜足夠好”的翻新商品將成為未來的趨勢。
公平地說，這并非全是壞事：從長遠(yuǎn)來看，人類需要轉(zhuǎn)向一個(gè)更可持續(xù)的文明，更多地采用循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)，或者說是所謂的穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)。美國人利用現(xiàn)有資源而不是建造和購買新物品所獲得的一些經(jīng)驗(yàn)和教訓(xùn)，或許對(duì)整個(gè)人類都有價(jià)值。
Pretty comprehensive list my friend with solid thoughts on why each will rise as we fall. But don't count us out yet. America is a very unique country as people go. We have always been held together by the middle. This is why the real evil at the top has always tried to ransack the middle. And are always seeking to remove the middle.
The poor will always have the numbers this is in all populations. The Middle has ability to lead those numbers as well as innovate things. The top isn't exactly one solidly Unified group. Just the top thinks everyone there has the same goal of stay there. They do share that goal they just go about it in vastly different manners.
I don't lose hope because I know too many people who rose with America and refuse to let her fall because the corrupt top thinks they can run the World from Washington DC.
Benjamin Franklin is said to have said our new government is a Republic, now pray you keep it. Our Republic is in peril but we aren't going to lose it without a fight.
我的朋友，這份清單相當(dāng)詳盡，對(duì)為什么我們衰落時(shí)，每個(gè)人都會(huì)崛起有著清晰的理解。
但別急著把我們排除在外。美國是一個(gè)非常獨(dú)特的國家。我們一直因?yàn)橹虚g階層而維系在一起。這就是為什么頂層真正的邪惡勢力總是試圖掠奪中間階層，并且總是試圖消滅中間階層的原因。
窮人的數(shù)量永遠(yuǎn)如此之多，在所有人口中都是如此。中間階層有能力引領(lǐng)這些人，并進(jìn)行創(chuàng)新。頂層并非一個(gè)完全統(tǒng)一的群體。只是頂層階層認(rèn)為每個(gè)人都有相同的目標(biāo)，那就是保住自己的位置。他們確實(shí)有共同的目標(biāo)，只是實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)的方式截然不同。
我不會(huì)失去希望，因?yàn)槲艺J(rèn)識(shí)太多與美國一同崛起的人，他們拒絕讓她衰落，而腐敗的頂層階層認(rèn)為他們可以從華盛頓特區(qū)統(tǒng)治世界。
據(jù)說本杰明·富蘭克林曾說過，我們的新政府是一個(gè)共和國，現(xiàn)在我祈禱你們能夠保住它。我們的共和國岌岌可危，但我們不會(huì)不戰(zhàn)而敗。
Good comment. Fighting for America doesn't mean fighting people who have different views, it means fighting for whole country to succeed. Maybe being forced to rely on each other will reduce the partisan rancor we experience.
好評(píng)論。為美國而戰(zhàn)，并不意味著要與持有不同觀點(diǎn)的人斗爭，而是要為整個(gè)國家的成功而戰(zhàn)。或許被迫互相依賴會(huì)減少我們所經(jīng)歷的黨派仇恨。
There will be one:
Canada.
Because Drumph has become such a hated entity, that anyone or anything that he promotes, Canadians throw away, so much for any chance that the CONservative Party had to win this upcoming election,
That’s a Very Good Thing for Canada.
只有一個(gè)：加拿大。
因?yàn)樘乩势找呀?jīng)成為一個(gè)如此令人憎惡的實(shí)體，以至于他所提倡的任何人或任何事物，都會(huì)被加拿大人拋棄，保守黨贏得即將到來的大選的機(jī)會(huì)也蕩然無存。
這對(duì)加拿大來說是一件非常好的事情。
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Short answer. The three main winners in no particular order are-
The US government.
Bankruptcy lawyers.
Repo men in the usa.
簡短回答。
三大贏家（排名不分先后）分別是：
美國政府。
破產(chǎn)律師。
美國的回購人員。
EU and the UK may put 25% tariffs on US made aircraft. Boeing will go bust and Airbus clean up due to lower production costs and superior aircraft.
歐盟和英國可能對(duì)美國制造的飛機(jī)征收25%的關(guān)稅。波音公司將破產(chǎn)，而空客公司將因生產(chǎn)成本更低且飛機(jī)性能更佳而獲得成功。
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Oh, there will be a clear loser and it be south of the 49th parallel. Your country’s name will change from the USA to USC. C for Cuba, the next shit hole country. You voted for it, enjoy.
哦，肯定會(huì)有一個(gè)輸家，而且輸家會(huì)落在北緯49度以南。你們的國家名會(huì)從USA改成USC。C代表古巴，下一個(gè)糞坑國家。你投了票，好好享受吧。
Canada will certainly be hurt, as will the U.S., but, at the end we will win because Trump will not take over the country in accordance with his stated obxtive. We will still be standing.
加拿大肯定會(huì)受到傷害，美國也是如此，但最終我們會(huì)贏，因?yàn)樘乩势詹粫?huì)按照他既定的目標(biāo)來接管這個(gè)國家。我們依然會(huì)屹立不倒。
War is not a good analogy for tariff disputes, at least with respect to winners and losers. Countries are constantly negotiating trade issues both bilaterally and multilaterally. Tariffs and threats of tariffs are two tactics in the negotiations. It’s usually impossible to say how they affected the final result.
Although Trump uses far harsher rhetoric than previous Presidents, his basic approach to trade seems similar. He prefers confrontational negotiation to quiet diplomacy but all Presidents at least since Bill Clinton strive to get favorable trade terms for the US and goodies for special interest groups by threatening to inflict unfavorable trade terms on other countries.
把關(guān)稅爭端說成戰(zhàn)爭是不妥當(dāng)?shù)摹Ｖ辽購内A家和輸家的角度來看是如此。
各國持續(xù)不斷地就貿(mào)易問題進(jìn)行雙邊和多邊談判。關(guān)稅和威脅征收關(guān)稅是談判中的兩種策略。通常很難說清它們?nèi)绾斡绊懽罱K結(jié)果的。
盡管特朗普的言辭比前幾任總統(tǒng)強(qiáng)硬得多，但他處理貿(mào)易問題的基本策略似乎大同小異。他更喜歡對(duì)抗性談判而非靜默外交，自比爾·克林頓以來，歷任總統(tǒng)都努力通過威脅其他國家，要對(duì)其施加不利的貿(mào)易條件，以此來為美國爭取有利的貿(mào)易條件，并為特殊利益集團(tuán)謀取利益。
The winners of tariffs war are countries that are not involved. For instance, if the USA raised tariff on steel and aluminium from Canada by 25%. It might be cheaper for them to import steel and aluminium from India! Or if the USA imposes 25% tariffs on Avocadoes from Mexico, they might eventually import them from Colombia or Peru. The market is always looking for cheaper alternatives, but this will take time to build up. It is not as if Peru and Colombia has excess avocadoes to sell to the USA or India steel and aluminium. In this sense, whichever developing market grows to fill up the slack will be the winners.
Wars are conflicts between different sides. A tariff war will have sides, obxtives for victory and surrender. Even though all parties will lose in a tariff war, one side will lose their winning obxtive, the other side then will by comparison have won.
關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)的贏家是未卷入其中的國家。
例如，如果美國將加拿大鋼鐵和鋁的關(guān)稅提高 25%。他們從印度進(jìn)口鋼鐵和鋁可能會(huì)更便宜！
或者，如果美國對(duì)墨西哥牛油果征收 25% 的關(guān)稅，他們最終可能會(huì)從哥倫比亞或秘魯進(jìn)口。
市場一直在尋找更便宜的替代品，但這需要時(shí)間來積累。秘魯和哥倫比亞并不擁有多余的牛油果可以賣給墨西哥。印度也可能沒有多余的鋼鐵和鋁。從這個(gè)意義上講，哪個(gè)發(fā)展中市場能夠增長并填補(bǔ)空缺，哪個(gè)就是贏家。
戰(zhàn)爭是不同陣營之間的沖突。關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)有陣營，有勝利目標(biāo)，也有投降目標(biāo)。即使關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)中所有各方都會(huì)失敗，但一方會(huì)失去制勝目標(biāo)，而另一方則相對(duì)而言獲得了勝利。
There rarely is a clear winner in a Tariff War.
關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)很少會(huì)有明顯的贏家。
There will only be losers of various degrees. Mexico will have it worse than other others though the US will have considerable problems.
只會(huì)有不同程度的輸家。盡管美國會(huì)面臨相當(dāng)大的問題，但墨西哥的情況會(huì)比其他國家更糟。
The intent appears to be for the USA to mirror the tariffs and regulations of their trading partners, which are of course fair and equitable. If they are fair practices as directed at the USA, then they are fair all around.
This is called fair trade practices.
其意圖似乎是想讓美國效仿其貿(mào)易伙伴的關(guān)稅和監(jiān)管規(guī)定，這些措施當(dāng)然是公平公正的。如果這些措施針對(duì)美國而言是公平的，那么它們對(duì)其他國家而言也是公平的。
這被稱為公平的貿(mào)易措施。
I read that some hedge funds are betting for the US to fail massively because of Trump. I guess they could be winners. For workers, companies and consumers, it’s only bad news.
我讀到一些對(duì)沖基金押注美國會(huì)因?yàn)樘乩势斩庥鼍薮笫?。我猜他們可能是贏家。但對(duì)工人、企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者來說，這只會(huì)是個(gè)壞消息。
There are no winners in a Tariff War but if Russia wins the war against Ukraine then the US will lose its hegemony and with Trump’s tax imposed on the US may lead to the US Dollar($) losing its universal currency status which would result in 90% of US citizens cost of living sky rocketing.
關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)沒有贏家，但如果俄羅斯贏得對(duì)烏克蘭的戰(zhàn)爭，那么美國將失去霸權(quán)，而特朗普對(duì)美國征收的稅可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致美元失去其通用貨幣地位，這將導(dǎo)致90％的美國公民生活成本飛漲。
There already is one big loser, about to be joined by 2 other very much smaller losers. As a Canadian, there is very little we need from the USA that we can't get elsewhere. And we will. Orange juice may have been one, but since you're deporting all the pickers, we weren't going to get much anyway.
已經(jīng)有一個(gè)大輸家了，接下來還有兩個(gè)小得多的輸家。作為加拿大人，我們很少需要從美國進(jìn)口，而且我們肯定能從其他地方買到替代品。橙汁或許是其中之一，但既然你們要驅(qū)逐所有采摘者，我們本來也買不到多少橙汁了。
Only losers. Tariffs hurt everyone, exporter, foreign manufacturers, importers and our economy as inflation runs rampant due to higher prices.
只有輸家。關(guān)稅損害了所有人的利益，包括出口商、外國制造商、進(jìn)口商，以及我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)，因?yàn)槲飪r(jià)上漲會(huì)導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹。
“Winning” isn’t the goal. A level playing field is. These countries charge higher tariffs on our goods than we do on theirs. American companies should be treated fairly for a change.
“贏”不是目標(biāo)，公平的競爭環(huán)境才是。這些國家對(duì)我們的商品征收的關(guān)稅，比我們對(duì)他們的商品征收的關(guān)稅高。美國企業(yè)應(yīng)該得到公平對(duì)待。
All that Trump is suggesting is that he will impose the same tariffs on, for example, EU countries and the UK that they (and we) impose on America.
That seems fair to me.
He has also threatened countries which refused to repatriate people who had entered the US illegally with high tariffs, which has clearly focused the minds of leaders of those countries.
特朗普只是暗示，他將對(duì)歐盟國家和英國等國征收與它們（以及我們）對(duì)美國征收的關(guān)稅相同的關(guān)稅。
我覺得這很公平。
他還威脅那些拒絕接收遣返非法入境美國人員的國家，并對(duì)其征收高額關(guān)稅，這顯然引起了這些國家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的關(guān)注。
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Same question are there any winners in Biden’s sanctions, embargoes war with half of the world? Same answer. Nope.
同樣的問題：拜登對(duì)半數(shù)國家的制裁和禁運(yùn)戰(zhàn)爭，有贏家嗎？答案是一樣的。沒有。