特朗普是在故意摧毀美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)嗎?這個(gè)國(guó)家在10年或20年內(nèi)能恢復(fù)過來嗎?
Is Trump destroying the US economy on purpose? Could the country bounce back in 10 or 20 years?
譯文簡(jiǎn)介
網(wǎng)友:這肯定是故意的。自從特朗普上任以來,我們已經(jīng)損失了接近10萬億美元的市場(chǎng)市值。沒有像COVID或911這樣的“黑天鵝”事件來解釋這一切,所以這一定是故意的。問題是為什么?
正文翻譯
Guy With A Tie
It must be intentional. We’re approaching $10 TRILLION in lost market cap since Trump took office. There’s no “black swan” event like COVID or 9/11 to explain this, so it must be intentional. The question is why?
這肯定是故意的。自從特朗普上任以來,我們已經(jīng)損失了接近10萬億美元的市場(chǎng)市值。沒有像COVID或911這樣的“黑天鵝”事件來解釋這一切,所以這一定是故意的。問題是為什么?
It must be intentional. We’re approaching $10 TRILLION in lost market cap since Trump took office. There’s no “black swan” event like COVID or 9/11 to explain this, so it must be intentional. The question is why?
這肯定是故意的。自從特朗普上任以來,我們已經(jīng)損失了接近10萬億美元的市場(chǎng)市值。沒有像COVID或911這樣的“黑天鵝”事件來解釋這一切,所以這一定是故意的。問題是為什么?
The best I can come up with is that Trump is trying to inflate our way out of debt. This gets into boring fiscal policy, but generally speaking it means a country uses inflation (rising prices across the economy) to reduce the real value of its debt. When prices go up, the money a government owes stays the same in number (nominal debt), but it's worth less in today's terms.
我能想到的最好解釋是,特朗普試圖通過通貨膨脹來解決我們的債務(wù)問題。這涉及到枯燥的財(cái)政政策,但一般來說,這意味著一個(gè)國(guó)家通過通貨膨脹(整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的物價(jià)上漲)來減少其債務(wù)的實(shí)際價(jià)值。當(dāng)物價(jià)上漲時(shí),政府欠的錢數(shù)量保持不變(名義債務(wù)),但按照今天的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),它的價(jià)值就降低了。
我能想到的最好解釋是,特朗普試圖通過通貨膨脹來解決我們的債務(wù)問題。這涉及到枯燥的財(cái)政政策,但一般來說,這意味著一個(gè)國(guó)家通過通貨膨脹(整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的物價(jià)上漲)來減少其債務(wù)的實(shí)際價(jià)值。當(dāng)物價(jià)上漲時(shí),政府欠的錢數(shù)量保持不變(名義債務(wù)),但按照今天的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),它的價(jià)值就降低了。
For example, say the government borrows $1,000 money today and promises to pay back $1,200 in ten years. That payback figure of $1,200 stays the same regardless of inflation, so in ten years that $1,200 would only be worth about $700 in today’s money. If wages and tax income rise with inflation, it's easier for the government to pay off what it owes. The big danger is that this strategy can hurt people’s savings and make everyday goods more expensive.
舉個(gè)例子,假設(shè)政府今天借了1000美元,并承諾在十年內(nèi)還回1200美元。無論通貨膨脹如何變化,這1200美元的償還數(shù)額都保持不變,所以十年后,這1200美元在今天的貨幣價(jià)值只相當(dāng)于約700美元。如果工資和稅收收入隨著通貨膨脹上升,政府更容易償還其債務(wù)。大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是,這種策略可能會(huì)傷害人們的儲(chǔ)蓄,并讓日常商品變得更貴。
舉個(gè)例子,假設(shè)政府今天借了1000美元,并承諾在十年內(nèi)還回1200美元。無論通貨膨脹如何變化,這1200美元的償還數(shù)額都保持不變,所以十年后,這1200美元在今天的貨幣價(jià)值只相當(dāng)于約700美元。如果工資和稅收收入隨著通貨膨脹上升,政府更容易償還其債務(wù)。大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是,這種策略可能會(huì)傷害人們的儲(chǔ)蓄,并讓日常商品變得更貴。
評(píng)論翻譯
很贊 ( 9 )
收藏
Of course he is. The entire game plan of the Republicans is to destroy everything, then pick up the pieces at rock bottom prices. As their favorite saying goes, never let a crisis go to waste.
當(dāng)然他是。共和黨的整個(gè)計(jì)劃就是摧毀一切,然后以極低的價(jià)格撿起碎片。正如他們最喜歡的說法,“永遠(yuǎn)不要讓危機(jī)浪費(fèi)掉“。
剩下的東西就會(huì)完全私有化,這樣有錢有權(quán)的人就可以永遠(yuǎn)吸取公共資源,同時(shí)剝奪普通人所有的保障,讓你們?yōu)榱说托?、僅能勉強(qiáng)維生的工作而乞求,且沒有未來。退休?忘了吧,你會(huì)工作到死,就像過去的好日子一樣。
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
特朗普和共和黨并不是為我們工作。他們?yōu)楦蝗撕陀袡?quán)勢(shì)的人工作。別以為他們會(huì)為普通美國(guó)人做任何事情,除了在選舉時(shí)承諾給你們一切,然后忘掉你們并把責(zé)任推給民主黨。
To all Trump supporters, you voted for this, but all the rest of us suffer from your dillusional view of the world. Wake TF up!
我們現(xiàn)在看到的是美國(guó)民主被盜賊政府和無能政府摧毀。如果你不知道什么是“無能政府”,它是由無能和不道德的人管理的政府??纯刺乩势蘸凸埠忘h任命到特朗普內(nèi)閣的那些極度無能和不合格的人。他們一個(gè)個(gè)都完全無能。
對(duì)所有特朗普的支持者來說,你們投票支持了這個(gè),但我們其余的人卻因你們對(duì)世界的幻想視角而受苦。醒醒吧!
Trump believes himself a genius, and there are enough Americans to get him elected as president.
Trump has a history of destruction, including his business empire, marriages, and worst president, declared my political scientists.
Also, now, most sued president. Only president, impeached two times.
That’s now his legacy in Americano history.
He replaced Nixon and Buchanan.
特朗普認(rèn)為自己是天才,且有足夠的美國(guó)人支持他當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)。 特朗普有一段破壞的歷史,包括他的商業(yè)帝國(guó)、婚姻,以及政治學(xué)者們所稱的最差總統(tǒng)。 而現(xiàn)在,他是被起訴最多的總統(tǒng)。唯一一位被彈劾兩次的總統(tǒng)。 這就是他在美國(guó)歷史中的遺產(chǎn)。 他取代了尼克松和布坎南。
these tariffs and other weird economic policies?
Trump bankrupted all his own companies.
Trump is a failure in everything, including his business bankruptcies and failed marriages.
Trump became the “most sued president,” and that’s now his legacy.
It’s the first time in our countries history, all our Allie’s, despise Trump.
Our generals, and those in government, don’t trust Trump. Trump is the only president, impeached two times.
這些關(guān)稅和其他奇怪的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策? 特朗普讓自己所有的公司都破產(chǎn)了。 特朗普在一切方面都是個(gè)失敗者,包括他的商業(yè)破產(chǎn)和失敗的婚姻。 特朗普成為了“最被起訴的總統(tǒng)”,這就是他的遺產(chǎn)。 這是我們國(guó)家歷史上第一次,所有的盟友都鄙視特朗普。 我們的將軍們,以及政府中的人們,不要信任特朗普。特朗普是唯一一位被彈劾兩次的總統(tǒng)。
Yes he is purposely trying to take everything from the American people so he can be dictator for life. He is more dangerous than Adolph Hitler. Narcissist lying moron convicted felon
是的,他故意想從美國(guó)人民手中奪走一切,這樣他就能成為終身DC者。他比阿道夫·希特勒更危險(xiǎn)。自戀、撒謊、愚蠢的重罪犯。
The problem is that Trump's idea of the economy is his bank account. He does not care about the economy as you probably understand the economy. It is not that he is purposely trying to destroy the economy. He is completely indifferent to it.
問題是,特朗普對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的理解就是他的銀行賬戶。他并不關(guān)心你可能理解的經(jīng)濟(jì)。并不是說他故意要摧毀經(jīng)濟(jì),他對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)完全漠不關(guān)心。
It could take several years of good governance to recover somewhat from the chaos he has already created. That’s if he is ousted right now. But it will take many years for the trust of the world to recover.
The US Constitution has served the nation well. It has failed now and needs amendment to ensure that no maniac can ever be entrusted with the power to rule alone.
可能需要幾年良好的治理才能在某種程度上從他已經(jīng)造成的混亂中恢復(fù)過來。如果他現(xiàn)在被趕下臺(tái)的話。但世界的信任恢復(fù)將需要很多年。
美國(guó)憲法曾經(jīng)很好地服務(wù)于國(guó)家,但現(xiàn)在它已經(jīng)失敗,必須進(jìn)行修訂,以確保永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)讓一個(gè)瘋子掌握單獨(dú)的統(tǒng)治權(quán)力。
The US economy is on a permanent decline. The 2nd Great Depression will eventually and, but the United States of American is a has been, like Greece, Rome, Spain, France, England, and Germany.
美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在永久衰退。第二次大蕭條最終會(huì)到來,但美國(guó)就像古希臘、古羅馬、西班牙、法國(guó)、英國(guó)和德國(guó)一樣,已成過去。
Are you sure this is the limit of intelligent question you can muster?
But wait — you’re not actually talking about how Biden destroyed the economy so completely that business STILL struggle to get enough workplace engagement to run at pre-Biden levels.
Trump is making changes, and the economy doesn’t like changes. At least in the short-term.
To maintain any facade of intelligence, you need a question that pierces the veil of the most shallowest and convenient representation of the short-term.
你確定這是你能提出的最聰明的問題嗎?
但等等——你并沒有討論拜登是如何完全摧毀經(jīng)濟(jì),導(dǎo)致企業(yè)仍然難以讓員工回到拜登之前的工作水平。
特朗普正在做出改變,而經(jīng)濟(jì)并不喜歡變化,至少在短期內(nèi)是這樣。
為了保持一點(diǎn)智慧,你需要一個(gè)能夠穿透表面、避免最膚淺和最方便的短期表現(xiàn)的問題。
What has Trump actually destroyed though? The stock market is taking a beating. It’s taking a beating not simply because of Trump, but because it was extremely overvalued to begin with. Some stock prices have been over 100 times their actual company earnings and revenue. On the ground, no assets have been destroyed or shut down. Business is still going on. So far the only people who have been detrimentally affected are the government employees that doge fired. Investors and fund managers, and by extension their clients, are crying that their highly overvalued stocks which they invested in (which they shouldn’t have anyway, because it was overvalued), have now tanked.
那么特朗普究竟破壞了什么呢?股市正在遭受重創(chuàng)。這不僅僅是因?yàn)樘乩势?,而是因?yàn)楣墒斜旧碓谝婚_始就被嚴(yán)重高估了。有些股票的價(jià)格是其公司實(shí)際盈利和收入的100倍以上。在實(shí)際層面上,沒有資產(chǎn)被摧毀或關(guān)閉。商業(yè)依然在繼續(xù)。目前唯一受到不利影響的是那些被doge解雇的政府員工。投資者和基金經(jīng)理,以及他們的客戶,正在抱怨他們投資的那些被嚴(yán)重高估的股票(他們本不該投資這些股票,因?yàn)樗鼈儽桓吖懒耍┈F(xiàn)在暴跌了。
所以特朗普并沒有摧毀經(jīng)濟(jì)。實(shí)際上,經(jīng)濟(jì)本身一直是被人為抬高的,而特朗普的行動(dòng)正在侵蝕這些虛假的價(jià)值。對(duì)美國(guó)人來說,令人擔(dān)憂的是,盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)有所減少,但它仍然可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步減少。美國(guó)股市依然高估。過去你的政治家們一直吹噓美國(guó)是世界上最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,但美元的購買力卻一直很低,過去十年普通美國(guó)人無法負(fù)擔(dān)體面的生活。這是因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)被人為制造得看起來很強(qiáng)大,通過股票價(jià)格操控和股票回購。
那么它會(huì)“反彈”嗎?實(shí)際上,它從來沒有強(qiáng)大到能反彈的程度。至少在現(xiàn)實(shí)中是這樣的。那么經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)在現(xiàn)實(shí)中增長(zhǎng)嗎?這仍然有待觀察,但很可能是的,最終它會(huì)增長(zhǎng)。如果特朗普現(xiàn)在停止行動(dòng),將會(huì)使美元貶值到更現(xiàn)實(shí)的水平。物價(jià)將會(huì)飆升,美國(guó)人發(fā)現(xiàn)自己無法再負(fù)擔(dān)以前應(yīng)該負(fù)擔(dān)不起的進(jìn)口商品。盡管消費(fèi)者會(huì)哭泣,但這將促使本地商業(yè)創(chuàng)新和生產(chǎn)。企業(yè)家和發(fā)明家將再次變得重要。
特朗普確實(shí)犯了很多錯(cuò)誤,且他的方式可以說是荒唐至極。但美國(guó)人即將意識(shí)到的更令人震驚的現(xiàn)實(shí)是,他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)和價(jià)值有多么膨脹。他們將很快意識(shí)到自己實(shí)際上是多么渺小,而中國(guó)、歐洲,甚至像印度這樣的國(guó)家究竟有多強(qiáng)大。特朗普及其追隨者傳播著這個(gè)世界不公平、剝奪美國(guó)的敘事。但事實(shí)上并沒有什么不公平。許多美國(guó)商品根本不具備競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,且價(jià)格過高,和同類商品相比毫無優(yōu)勢(shì)。
美國(guó)的政治家們一直在經(jīng)營(yíng)一個(gè)龐氏騙局,一個(gè)假象,一直在把問題推給未來。無論特朗普是有意還是無意,他將結(jié)束這個(gè)龐氏騙局。
No. Trump is doing exactly what the past presidents should have done. Don’t let a wavering stock market give you the jitters. It’s a poor indication of the economy, at least short term.
There are two groups of people screaming about Trump and Elon cutting the waste - the people that were receiving the waste, and the useful idiots they round up to help them protest.
不,特朗普正在做的是過去總統(tǒng)應(yīng)該做的事情。不要讓波動(dòng)的股市讓你感到不安。至少短期內(nèi),股市是經(jīng)濟(jì)的一個(gè)糟糕指標(biāo)。
有兩類人正在大聲抱怨特朗普和埃隆裁剪浪費(fèi)——那些曾經(jīng)接受浪費(fèi)的人,以及那些被他們收買的愚蠢幫兇來幫助抗議。
如果特朗普成功,我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)將像從未有過的那樣繁榮。記得在50年代和60年代時(shí),只需要一個(gè)人就能賺足夠的錢買房子、買車、支付教育費(fèi)用、去度假并且為退休儲(chǔ)蓄。你有沒有想過為什么這種情況發(fā)生了變化?特朗普將會(huì)解決這個(gè)問題。享受這段旅程吧。
He is trying to force nations and industries to bow to him. He will “allow” them to swear loyalty to him and he will drop the tariffs. It seems that Columbia University caved, over funding and is now nothing more than a propaganda college, unable to allow students to think, protest and support any cause Donald doesn’t support. This is how he will gain control over countries as well, although I doubt it will work.
他正在試圖迫使國(guó)家和行業(yè)向他低頭。他將“允許”他們宣誓效忠于他,然后他會(huì)取消關(guān)稅。似乎哥倫比亞大學(xué)屈服了,因資金問題,現(xiàn)在成了一個(gè)宣傳學(xué)校,不能讓學(xué)生自由思考、抗議或支持任何特朗普不支持的事業(yè)。這就是他將如何控制國(guó)家的方式,盡管我懷疑這是否能夠奏效。
trump is purposefully destroying the American economy for his master putin and because trump and the Republicans hate America and it's people they are all criminals and pedophiles
特朗普故意破壞美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì),為了他的主子普京,因?yàn)樘乩势蘸凸埠忘h人憎恨美國(guó)及其人民,他們?nèi)际亲锓负蛻偻薄?/b>
原創(chuàng)翻譯:龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
There are several aspects to this: his “blow up the administrative state” via slashing of the public services, turning over the state to the polluters, doing the bidding of a dying industry (fossil fuels), blowing up the Pax Americana, and his whacko tariffs.
這其中有幾個(gè)方面:他通過削減公共服務(wù)來“摧毀行政國(guó)家”,將國(guó)家交給污染者,聽命于一個(gè)衰退中的行業(yè)(化石燃料),破壞“美洲霸權(quán)”,以及他的荒唐關(guān)稅政策。
考慮到過去30年世界生產(chǎn)通過長(zhǎng)供應(yīng)鏈的整合,他的關(guān)稅政策非常具有破壞性和損害性。特朗普似乎在采取一種黑幫頭目式的策略,他希望各國(guó)前來向他提供讓步,以便降低關(guān)稅??紤]到美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模,他將市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入作為一種手段來施壓。
但這意味著他并不真正把某一國(guó)的關(guān)稅作為長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)略。投資者如果沒有穩(wěn)定的市場(chǎng)框架保障,是不會(huì)投資的,尤其是需要足夠時(shí)間來確保他們的投資能夠獲得回報(bào)。
The next administration in 2028 will have to sort this all out.
因此,今年晚些時(shí)候很可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一次嚴(yán)重的衰退。特朗普已經(jīng)承認(rèn)“會(huì)有痛苦”,但他聲稱一切會(huì)在之后變得更好——大概是在他成功地從其他國(guó)家索取所需的讓步之后。但在這一點(diǎn)上,他簡(jiǎn)直是瘋狂的。
2028年下一屆政府將不得不解決這一切問題。
it is impossible to know another person’s intentions. But there is no way he would destroy the Us economy on purpose. He has nothing to gain from that and everything to lose, both politically and personally. He THINKS that what he is doing will have a good end game.
我們無法知道另一個(gè)人的意圖。但他絕不會(huì)故意摧毀美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。他沒有從中獲益的理由,反而會(huì)在政治和個(gè)人上失去一切。他認(rèn)為自己正在做的事情會(huì)有一個(gè)好的結(jié)果。
He has looked at the imbalanced trade partnerships that the US has put up with over the years (probably because we are the wealthiest nation in the world and we are only minimally hurt by them) and decided that he wants to negotiate better trade deals.
考慮到幾乎所有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家(包括我自己)都相信自由貿(mào)易的價(jià)值,而且?guī)缀跛薪?jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都認(rèn)為關(guān)稅通常是自由貿(mào)易的障礙,并且考慮到總統(tǒng)有機(jī)會(huì)接觸到一些世界上最優(yōu)秀的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,我的猜測(cè)是:
他看到了美國(guó)多年來所容忍的不平衡貿(mào)易伙伴關(guān)系(可能是因?yàn)槲覀兪鞘澜缟献罡挥械膰?guó)家,且這些不平衡對(duì)我們影響較小),并決定他想要談判更好的貿(mào)易協(xié)議。
Trump also knows that the other nations need our dollars more than we need their goods, since we consume more goods than anyone else in the world. So he is probably trying to be a “hard negotiator.”
舉個(gè)例子,德國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)汽車征收10%的關(guān)稅,而美國(guó)對(duì)德國(guó)汽車的關(guān)稅為2.5%。自1970年代以來,美國(guó)進(jìn)口了許多來自日本的汽車,而日本從未進(jìn)口超過幾輛美國(guó)汽車。將這些不平衡調(diào)整過來是有道理的。
特朗普還知道,其他國(guó)家比我們更需要美元,因?yàn)槲覀兿M(fèi)的商品比世界上任何其他國(guó)家都多。所以他可能在嘗試做一個(gè)“強(qiáng)硬的談判者”。
If the end of this is better trade arrangements, he will look like a genius. If this trade war leads to a global recession (and it could) then he will be the new Herbert Hoover.
然而,很難理解特朗普為什么宣布廣泛的關(guān)稅措施,甚至對(duì)我們的最親密盟友(以及企鵝島)也開征關(guān)稅。
如果這一切最終能帶來更好的貿(mào)易安排,他將顯得像個(gè)天才。如果這場(chǎng)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退(而且它有可能導(dǎo)致),那么他將成為新的Herbert Hoover。
No. He’s a delusional psychopath, who never understood anything in life.
His life history are all failures.
Trump was the first president impeached two times.
不,他是一個(gè)妄想的精神病患者,根本不理解生活中的任何事情。
他的生活史充滿了失敗。
特朗普是第一位兩次被彈劾的總統(tǒng)。
His history is filled with his failures; bankruptcies, divorces and thousands of lawsuits.
Political scientists have already ranked him worst president.
Mental health professionals have written hundreds of articles and books on Trump’s mental illness; at least, 4,000 titles.
The first best seller: The dangerous case of Donald Trump, written by 37 mental health professionals.
美國(guó)的無知應(yīng)該為此負(fù)責(zé)。
他的歷史充滿了失?。黄飘a(chǎn)、離婚和成千上萬的訴訟。
政治學(xué)家們已經(jīng)將他評(píng)為最差的總統(tǒng)。
心理健康專業(yè)人士寫了成百上千篇關(guān)于特朗普精神疾病的文章和書籍;至少有4000本書。
第一本暢銷書:《特朗普的危險(xiǎn)面貌》,由37位心理健康專家共同撰寫。
It’s now became true!
Our stock market is taking a nose dive!
Many jobs and income will be lost.
This will turn out to be the worst recession since 2008.
最新的警告:特朗普在2024年對(duì)世界構(gòu)成最大威脅。
這現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)變成了現(xiàn)實(shí)!
我們的股市正在急劇下跌!
許多工作和收入將會(huì)喪失。
這將成為自2008年以來最糟糕的衰退。