你認(rèn)為美國(guó)關(guān)稅會(huì)導(dǎo)致制造業(yè)向印度轉(zhuǎn)移嗎？
Do you think US Tariffs will shift manufacturing to India?
譯文簡(jiǎn)介
越南和中國(guó)都有高額關(guān)稅，而印度的關(guān)稅相對(duì)較低。
正文翻譯
Do you think US Tariffs will shift manufacturing to India?
你認(rèn)為美國(guó)關(guān)稅會(huì)導(dǎo)致制造業(yè)向印度轉(zhuǎn)移嗎？
你認(rèn)為美國(guó)關(guān)稅會(huì)導(dǎo)致制造業(yè)向印度轉(zhuǎn)移嗎？
Apple announced plans to make more of its iphones in India. Vietnam has sky high tariffs, so does China. India has lower tariffs than them.
Will this shift manufacturing to India? Should we buy manufacturing company stocks?
蘋果公司已宣布計(jì)劃在印度生產(chǎn)更多 iPhone。越南和中國(guó)都有高額關(guān)稅，而印度的關(guān)稅相對(duì)較低。
這會(huì)導(dǎo)致制造業(yè)向印度轉(zhuǎn)移嗎？我們是否應(yīng)該購(gòu)買制造業(yè)公司的股票？
Will this shift manufacturing to India? Should we buy manufacturing company stocks?
蘋果公司已宣布計(jì)劃在印度生產(chǎn)更多 iPhone。越南和中國(guó)都有高額關(guān)稅，而印度的關(guān)稅相對(duì)較低。
這會(huì)導(dǎo)致制造業(yè)向印度轉(zhuǎn)移嗎？我們是否應(yīng)該購(gòu)買制造業(yè)公司的股票？
評(píng)論翻譯
很贊 ( 13 )
收藏
likes: 36
on one side , the US guys want production to shift to their country and placing tariffs,most of our factories are from the US and they are biting their nails cause of all that's happening , why ll they come to india?
一方面，美國(guó)人希望制造業(yè)回流本國(guó)并設(shè)置關(guān)稅壁壘。我們印度的很多工廠都來(lái)自美國(guó)，他們現(xiàn)在正因?yàn)檫@一切而憂心忡忡，那他們?yōu)槭裁匆獊?lái)印度呢？
likes: 26
Because manufacturing in us is too expensive. Also, Trump sometimes says that tarrifs are a negotiation tactic, so if tarrifs will go away eventually then why would companies shift plants to usa. If tarrifs are permanent,then setting up up not just a manufacturing plant but to localise supply chains is going to be a decade long process. If Trump is going to be gone in 4 years,why would companies transfer their plant?
因?yàn)樵诿绹?guó)本土制造的成本太高了。而且，特朗普有時(shí)會(huì)說(shuō)關(guān)稅只是一種談判策略。如果關(guān)稅最終會(huì)取消，那公司為什么要費(fèi)力把工廠遷回美國(guó)呢？可如果關(guān)稅是永久性的，那么要建立的不僅僅是制造工廠，還要實(shí)現(xiàn)供應(yīng)鏈的本地化，這將是一個(gè)長(zhǎng)達(dá)十年的過(guò)程。如果特朗普四年后就可能下臺(tái)，公司又何必現(xiàn)在轉(zhuǎn)移工廠呢？
likes: 1
I heard he's fighting for his next term too? Ofc he can't coz that's illegal but it's Trump.
我聽說(shuō)他還在爭(zhēng)取下一個(gè)任期？當(dāng)然，這不合法，他不可能連任，但畢竟他是特朗普。
likes: 10
They can't shift everything to the US. It'll still be cheaper to make shoes or clothes in a low wage country.
Cheaper here now than in Vietnam with its 90% tariffs or maybe even China.
他們不可能把所有產(chǎn)業(yè)都轉(zhuǎn)移回美國(guó)。在低工資國(guó)家生產(chǎn)鞋子或服裝仍然會(huì)更便宜。
考慮到越南高達(dá)90%的關(guān)稅，甚至可能比中國(guó)還高，現(xiàn)在在印度生產(chǎn)比在那些地方更便宜。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
likes: 4
Okay let me address this. If companies want to move manufacturing to US they'll need 4 things. Factories/plants, raw materials, Labor and time.
1. Building new factories/plants doesn't happen over a week. It takes years and a lot of investment. That's still a lot of time where the tariffs will be active and they can't pass all of it on to the consumer so companies won't be posting profits which means the market will decline.
2. Raw materials which the US doesn't make will have to be imported. Say for example textiles. US doesn't grow cotton. They'll need to import it then start plantations and grow cotton which again takes time. Not to mention these raw materials will be far more expensive since disgruntled and downright pissed off countries may not want to export these or will charge insane rates for the exports over a short period.
3. US has a minimum wage law which means labor will be exorbitant for companies trying to increase their profits so even assuming they manage to build factories and import resources they still have have to pay expensive wage in comparison to what they pay right now in china or vietnam or taiwan which again will only hurt profits.
4. Assuming the handful of companies which can invest insane money to do all of the above they still have to find people who will buy these products at a price where the company will make profits. It will take an eternity to be profitable considering all of the above will shoot up inflation to unimaginable levels.
This is the exact reason why I think trump is clueless about how anything works. Companies would lose less money by literally just importing with these tariffs and waiting out his presidency. This is the most likely scenario which will lead to a recession first in the US followed by global markets because of the uncertainty and the lack of money flowing into those markets.
What this means for us if the orange orangutan decides to go down this path from the perspective of the capital markets is a long period of growth stagnation and potentially degrowth because of the importance of trade for every company which directly leads to a long term recession or even a depression.
TLDR : Were fucked. Also sorry for the formatting. On my phone.
好的，讓我來(lái)分析一下。如果公司想把制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移到美國(guó)，他們需要四樣?xùn)|西：工廠/廠房、原材料、勞動(dòng)力和時(shí)間。
1. 建新工廠不是一周就能完成的。 這需要數(shù)年時(shí)間和巨額投資。在這期間，關(guān)稅將持續(xù)生效，而公司無(wú)法將所有成本都轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者，這意味著公司利潤(rùn)會(huì)下降，導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)萎縮。
2. 美國(guó)無(wú)法生產(chǎn)的原材料必須進(jìn)口。 比如紡織品，美國(guó)不種棉花。他們需要先進(jìn)口，然后建立種植園開始種植，這同樣需要時(shí)間。更不用說(shuō)，那些心懷不滿甚至被激怒的國(guó)家可能不愿意出口這些原材料，或者會(huì)在短期內(nèi)收取天價(jià)出口費(fèi)，導(dǎo)致原材料成本飆升。
3. 美國(guó)有最低工資法， 這意味著對(duì)于想提高利潤(rùn)的公司來(lái)說(shuō)，勞動(dòng)力成本將極其高昂。因此，即使他們?cè)O(shè)法建廠并進(jìn)口了資源，與目前在中國(guó)、越南或臺(tái)灣（地區(qū)）支付的工資相比，他們?nèi)孕柚Ц陡甙旱墓べY，這只會(huì)進(jìn)一步損害利潤(rùn)。
4. 假設(shè)少數(shù)幾家公司有能力投入巨資完成以上所有步驟， 他們?nèi)匀恍枰业皆敢庖阅茏尮居膬r(jià)格購(gòu)買這些產(chǎn)品的消費(fèi)者?？紤]到上述所有因素都會(huì)將通貨膨脹推向難以想象的高度，要實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利將遙遙無(wú)期。
這正是我認(rèn)為特朗普對(duì)事情如何運(yùn)作一無(wú)所知的原因。對(duì)于公司而言，在承受這些關(guān)稅的同時(shí)繼續(xù)進(jìn)口，并等待他的任期結(jié)束，損失反而會(huì)更小。最可能出現(xiàn)的情況是，這種不確定性和資金流動(dòng)缺乏將首先導(dǎo)致美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，隨后波及全球市場(chǎng)。
從資本市場(chǎng)的角度來(lái)看，如果這位“橙色猩猩”（指特朗普）決定走這條路，對(duì)我們意味著什么？那就是一段長(zhǎng)期的增長(zhǎng)停滯，甚至可能是負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)橘Q(mào)易對(duì)每家公司都至關(guān)重要，這會(huì)直接導(dǎo)致長(zhǎng)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退甚至蕭條。
總而言之：我們都玩完了。 另外，手機(jī)打字，格式可能不太好，抱歉。
likes: 1
This is why country’s shouldn’t go to the negotiation table yet, they should wait it out otherwise they will get the short end of the stick.
Even with our tariffs, the calculations showed that it will cost only 75000 Cr, which is not a lot. We spend more than that on free ration every year.
這就是為什么各國(guó)現(xiàn)在還不應(yīng)該坐到談判桌前，他們應(yīng)該再等等看，否則會(huì)吃虧。
即使加上我們的關(guān)稅，計(jì)算顯示對(duì)印度的成本也只增加7500億盧比，這不算多。我們每年在免費(fèi)口糧上的花費(fèi)都比這多。
likes: 5
It really doesn't matter if countries negotiate. Trump has to remove the tariffs for any level of normalcy but he won't and he can't because of his ego. Stupidity and ego together is just an amazing combination to laugh at but give it power and you'll have nothing but chaos.
各國(guó)是否談判其實(shí)并不重要。特朗普必須取消關(guān)稅才能恢復(fù)一定程度的正常狀態(tài)，但他不會(huì)，也因?yàn)樗淖载?fù)而做不到。愚蠢加上自負(fù)本來(lái)就是個(gè)可笑的組合，但如果賦予其權(quán)力，帶來(lái)的就只有混亂。
likes: 1
He increased the tariffs cause items will become costly to people , he wants to reduce consumer demand there , his currency will stabelize, this also lets them to control inflation, , he wants to self sustain America , we still dont know the complete motive , they have their plan , we are also entering into an automation era , we have to take in all the factors. Lets see what's up front
他提高關(guān)稅是因?yàn)樯唐穼?duì)民眾來(lái)說(shuō)會(huì)變得昂貴，他想借此降低美國(guó)的消費(fèi)需求，從而穩(wěn)定美元，這也有助于控制通脹。他想讓美國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)自給自足。我們?nèi)匀徊恢劳暾膭?dòng)機(jī)，他們有他們的計(jì)劃。而且，我們也正在進(jìn)入自動(dòng)化時(shí)代，必須考慮到所有因素。讓我們拭目以待吧。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
likes: 2
>He increased the tariffs cause items will become costly to people
Tariffs no matter the outcome will make it even more expensive.
I'm just hoping english isn't your strong suit cause if it is and you actually believe what you wrote I can only pity your understanding of things.
“他提高關(guān)稅是因?yàn)樯唐穼?duì)民眾來(lái)說(shuō)會(huì)變得昂貴”
無(wú)論結(jié)果如何，關(guān)稅只會(huì)讓商品變得更貴。
我只能希望英語(yǔ)不是你的強(qiáng)項(xiàng)，因?yàn)槿绻?，而且你真的相信你寫的東西，那我只能同情你對(duì)事物的理解能力了。
likes: 1
Okay. lets talk about this question ,whose the largest consumer in the world? USA, it is a profit powerhouse for companies till date but now,whatever step that country takes the world gets affected, with increased tariffs for how long will companies sustain themselves? eg , International apparel brands and manufacturing units in India are asking the govt to give more incentives to buffer the tariffs , Indians are already heated up with the amount of concessions the govt is giving to the companies,with ohenimenal reduction in corporate taxes falling on indian's heads,now this? the best bet the brands can do is put up a shop in USA itself , let all their branches in the world be where they are and continue business.
好的。讓我們回到這個(gè)問(wèn)題：世界上最大的消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)是哪里？美國(guó)。至今為止，它一直是公司的利潤(rùn)引擎。但現(xiàn)在，這個(gè)國(guó)家采取的任何一步都會(huì)影響世界。隨著關(guān)稅增加，公司還能維持多久？例如，印度的國(guó)際服裝品牌和制造單位正要求政府提供更多激勵(lì)措施來(lái)緩沖關(guān)稅影響。印度民眾已經(jīng)對(duì)政府給予公司的各種優(yōu)惠（比如大幅降低企業(yè)稅，最終負(fù)擔(dān)落在民眾頭上）感到不滿，現(xiàn)在又來(lái)這個(gè)？這些品牌能做的最好的選擇，可能就是在美??國(guó)本土開店，同時(shí)讓它們?cè)谑澜绺鞯氐姆种C(jī)構(gòu)維持現(xiàn)狀，繼續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng)。
likes: 2
Do you even understand the cost of manufacturing in the US ? Actually scratch that. You don't. I literally explained it too and you still don't get it. I mean I can't understand it for you dude.
你到底明不明白在美國(guó)制造的成本有多高？算了，當(dāng)我沒說(shuō)。你根本不懂。我剛才已經(jīng)解釋得很清楚了，你還是沒明白。老兄，我總不能替你去理解吧。
likes: -1
Let me conclude with this as you asked , hes creating a situation like great depression so that labour costs will fall,every sector out there is insecure with how quick AI is developing itself , they cant continue to be up there when most of the work will be done by machines in the near future. we are looking at automation now. This is just one factor amongst all that is in their mind. Time will tell the result.
既然你問(wèn)了，那我就這樣總結(jié)吧：他正在制造一種類似大蕭條的局面，目的是讓勞動(dòng)力成本下降?？紤]到人工智能發(fā)展的速度之快，現(xiàn)在每個(gè)行業(yè)都感到不安。當(dāng)大部分工作在不久的將來(lái)都將由機(jī)器完成時(shí)，指?jìng)鹘y(tǒng)勞動(dòng)力模式不可能繼續(xù)維持現(xiàn)狀。我們現(xiàn)在關(guān)注的是自動(dòng)化。這只是他們諸多考量中的一個(gè)因素。時(shí)間會(huì)告訴我們結(jié)果。
likes: 1
>hes creating a situation like great depression so that labour costs will fall
This makes no sense. If we get into a situation like that inflation will be in the double digits and labour costs literally won't fall cause there won't be any jobs available. Businesses will be shutting down everywhere because it won't be profitable.
>every sector out there is insecure with how quick AI is developing itself
This is a ridiculous take. Have you seen how an LLM works ? It can't even map out a basic project flow that can be read and understood by humans. AI isn't taking over yet. Still a long way to go and even then I'm more concerned about how our ancient politicians are gonna regulate AI given they can't even regulate basic crap.
And the rest of what you said has nothing to do with tariffs.
“他正在制造一種類似大蕭條的局面，目的是讓勞動(dòng)力成本下降”
這完全說(shuō)不通。如果他們真的陷入那種境地，通脹將達(dá)到兩位數(shù)，勞動(dòng)力成本根本不會(huì)下降，因?yàn)楦揪蜎]有工作崗位了。由于無(wú)法盈利，企業(yè)會(huì)到處倒閉。
“考慮到人工智能發(fā)展的速度之快，現(xiàn)在每個(gè)行業(yè)都感到不安”
這說(shuō)法太荒謬了。你見過(guò)大語(yǔ)言模型是怎么工作的嗎？它甚至無(wú)法規(guī)劃出一個(gè)能讓人類讀懂的基本項(xiàng)目流程。人工智能還沒到那個(gè)程度，還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。即便到了那一天，我更擔(dān)心的是我們那些老派政客會(huì)如何監(jiān)管人工智能，畢竟他們連基本的破事都管不好。
而且你后面說(shuō)的那些，跟關(guān)稅沒什么關(guān)系。
likes: 12
Ambani forays into manufacturing look at it what’s happening all getting dusted. These gujjus have built their empire without doing anything just influenced govt policies in their favour. Most of the businesses in India are still run by these Lala businessmen without any spine
看看安巴尼進(jìn)軍制造業(yè)的嘗試，結(jié)果如何？一敗涂地。這些古吉拉特商人建立帝國(guó)，靠的都不是實(shí)干，只是影響政府政策使其對(duì)自己有利。印度的大多數(shù)企業(yè)仍然由這些缺乏骨氣的“拉拉商人”（指?jìng)鹘y(tǒng)、保守的商人）經(jīng)營(yíng)。
likes: 32
LOL no. Indian policymakers are a joke and companies are scared shitless of GST babus bribe requests.
Even the existing manufacturing players are planning to shut shop. No way new ones are coming. They'd rather set up shop in Antarctica.
哈哈，不可能。印度的政策制定者就是個(gè)笑話，公司們對(duì)商品及服務(wù)稅官員索要賄賂的要求怕得要死。
就連現(xiàn)有的制造業(yè)者都在計(jì)劃關(guān)門大吉了。新來(lái)的根本沒戲。他們寧愿去南極洲開廠。
likes: 11
Yeah cause doing business in India is so easy
是啊，說(shuō)得好像在印度做生意很容易似的。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
likes: -12
It has climbed the rankings over time
印度的營(yíng)商便利度排名確實(shí)隨著時(shí)間在上升。
likes: 6
Ease of Business ranking is a confirmed scam. Countries could bribe to improve their rankings and we all know who is the Vishwa Goo Roo of corruption and bribes.
On the ground level, there's 0 change. Ask anybody who's tried to get a manufacturing license in the last 2 years.
營(yíng)商便利度排名已經(jīng)被證實(shí)是個(gè)騙局。國(guó)家可以花錢買排名，我們都知道誰(shuí)是腐敗和賄賂方面的“世界大師”（Vishwa Goo Roo，諷刺說(shuō)法）。
在實(shí)際層面，根本沒有任何改變。你去問(wèn)問(wèn)過(guò)去兩年里嘗試申請(qǐng)制造業(yè)許可證的人就知道了。
likes: 2
Still not easy tho. Not better than Vietnam which seems to be getting a lot of traction lately
在印度做生意仍然不容易。比不上越南，越南最近似乎吸引了很多關(guān)注。
likes: 8
Lately? Their electronics manufacturing industry is bigger than India.
最近？他們的電子制造業(yè)規(guī)模已經(jīng)比印度大了。
likes: 1
Vietnam has 47% tarrif.
越南的關(guān)稅是47%。
likes: 3
Okay and? They have mechanisms in place to move away from the US and will probably get closer to china, EU.
They have the option to do that. We don’t.
好吧，那又怎樣？他們有相應(yīng)的機(jī)制來(lái)擺脫對(duì)美國(guó)的依賴，并且可能會(huì)更靠近中國(guó)和歐盟。
他們有這個(gè)選項(xiàng)，我們沒有。
likes: 1
The commission to our babus is ten times more than any tariff.
給我們的官員的“傭金”比任何關(guān)稅都要高十倍。
likes: 10
No, our labour lacks basic skills.
Fans and motors are fine, anything beyond that like chips and LCDs, electronics are not easy. Few exceptions exist.
Whybdo you think we import Boat from China?
不，我們的勞動(dòng)力缺乏基本技能。
生產(chǎn)風(fēng)扇和馬達(dá)還行，但更復(fù)雜的像芯片、液晶顯示器、電子產(chǎn)品就不容易了。當(dāng)然也有少數(shù)例外。
你以為我們?yōu)槭裁磸闹袊?guó)進(jìn)口 Boat（品牌名，指耳機(jī)等電子產(chǎn)品）？
likes: 4
You are day dreaming, india and the rest of the countries are more worried about cheap Chinese dumping.
你在做白日夢(mèng)。印度和其他國(guó)家現(xiàn)在更擔(dān)心的是廉價(jià)的中國(guó)商品傾銷。
likes: 2
If the tariffs lasts then maybe rn it seems more like a texas stand-off ...
如果關(guān)稅持續(xù)下去，也許會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移。但現(xiàn)在看起來(lái)更像是一場(chǎng)“德州式對(duì)峙”（texas stand-off，指僵持不下的局面）...
likes: 1
I think it'll be a full blown trade war. At least with China. If south east asia also gets it, we will stand to benefit.
Our political leaders have good relations with their leaders now. If they play it right it could benefit us somewhat.
我認(rèn)為這將演變成一場(chǎng)全面的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，至少是與中國(guó)的。如果東南亞國(guó)家也受到波及，我們將從中受益。
我們的政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人現(xiàn)在與他們的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人關(guān)系不錯(cuò)。如果策略得當(dāng)，我們可能會(huì)在某種程度上受益。
likes: 5
Agreed with everything but the relationship part , Trump doesn't care about it he was like PM is a good friend but they are being hard with us ...
Soo relationship doesn't matter much ... !
其他都同意，但關(guān)系那部分不敢茍同。特朗普根本不在乎這個(gè)，他曾說(shuō)過(guò)類似“印度總理是個(gè)好朋友，但他們?cè)趯?duì)我們貿(mào)易上很強(qiáng)硬”的話...
所以關(guān)系沒那么重要...！
likes: 1
The relationship matters in that india isn't considering Retaliatory tariffs, so no trade war., neither is israel, and they aren't because of the buddy buddy personal relationship and ideological similarities.
Other countries like Vietnam are com...st. Don't see trump being buddies with them
Everyone else is in a trade war.
關(guān)系之所以重要，在于印度沒有考慮采取報(bào)復(fù)性關(guān)稅，所以沒有貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。以色列也沒有，這正是因?yàn)轭I(lǐng)導(dǎo)人之間那種“哥倆好”的個(gè)人關(guān)系和意識(shí)形態(tài)上的相似性。
像越南這樣的其他國(guó)家是GCZY國(guó)家，沒看到特朗普跟他們稱兄道弟。
其他所有國(guó)家都陷入了貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
likes: 2
Vietnam already said they are ok with zero tariff for the US.
越南已經(jīng)表示，他們可以接受對(duì)美國(guó)零關(guān)稅。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
likes: 1
How?
US placed tarrifs so they can shift manufacturing in US.
How would Indian manufacturing boom in this case?
怎么可能？
美國(guó)設(shè)置關(guān)稅是為了把制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移回美國(guó)本土。
這種情況下，印度制造業(yè)怎么可能繁榮起來(lái)？
likes: 1
Because it is still cheaper to make something in a low wage country than in the US. Right now we are the cheaper alternative seeing Vietnam and china are out of the picture.
Manufacturing won't shift to the US anyhow in 4 years. Trumps tariff war will never work. Doomed to fail from the start,
Companies don't care about Trumps patriotic sentiments. They care about bottom line.
Things like some electronics could shift here. Dixon.
And maybe clothing. Since bangladesh has collapsed, Gokaldas exports
因?yàn)樵诘凸べY國(guó)家生產(chǎn)東西仍然比在美國(guó)便宜，這一點(diǎn)永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)變?，F(xiàn)在越南和中國(guó)基本出局了，我們就成了更便宜的選擇。
無(wú)論如何，制造業(yè)不可能在短短4年內(nèi)就轉(zhuǎn)移到美國(guó)。特朗普的關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)成功，從一開始就注定失敗。
公司不關(guān)心特朗普的愛國(guó)情懷，他們只關(guān)心利潤(rùn)。
像一些電子產(chǎn)品可能會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移到這里，比如 Dixon。
還有服裝業(yè)可能也會(huì)。既然孟加拉國(guó)紡織業(yè)已經(jīng)崩潰，Gokaldas Exports 可能會(huì)受益。
likes: 1
Here is the thing.
Trump is known to be unpredictable.
In current environment, no company is betting on long game coz Trump can raise tarrifs on India overnight.
Unless Indian manufacturers can meet the demand in next 1-2 months, nothing will happen. There is small window of meeting demand and getting slapped with tarrifs.
No one is willing to play that game.
And India is definitely not known for moving fast.
問(wèn)題就在這里。
特朗普以其不可預(yù)測(cè)性而聞名。
在當(dāng)前環(huán)境下，沒有公司敢做長(zhǎng)期規(guī)劃，因?yàn)樘乩势湛赡芤灰怪g就對(duì)印度加征關(guān)稅。
除非印度制造商能在未來(lái)1-2個(gè)月內(nèi)滿足需求，否則什么都不會(huì)發(fā)生。這是一個(gè)很短的窗口期：既要滿足需求，又要避免被關(guān)稅打擊。
沒人愿意玩這個(gè)游戲。
而且印度從來(lái)都不以行動(dòng)迅速著稱。
likes: 1
Trump has placed the tariffs not Apple! India will now make more IPhones because of tariffs. We will be less impacted.
是特朗普設(shè)置的關(guān)稅，不是蘋果公司！因?yàn)殛P(guān)稅，印度現(xiàn)在將生產(chǎn)更多 iPhone。我們受到的影響會(huì)相對(duì)較小。
likes: 1
Yea, that's few examples where we already have infra ready to exploit it.
Trump is fickle, he can change the tarrifs overnight and he will coz their aim is not to just harm china, they want to shift manufacturing to their country.
是的，這只是少數(shù)幾個(gè)我們已經(jīng)擁有基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施可以利用的例子。
特朗普反復(fù)無(wú)常，他隨時(shí)可能改變關(guān)稅，而且他會(huì)的，因?yàn)樗麄兊哪繕?biāo)不僅僅是打擊中國(guó)，他們是想把制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移回自己的國(guó)家。
likes: 1
it's too early, wait for official confirmation.
現(xiàn)在說(shuō)還為時(shí)過(guò)早，等等官方確認(rèn)吧。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
likes: 1
If you go by trump logic, they want American manufactured products but effect is going to be inflation and breaking of economy while the life's already hard. So demand will certainly fall. So there's no one will be investing anywhere until USA does something with tariffs after it hit them hard.
Also economy isn't favourable in most of the sectors & new huge investments are hard especially with India sometimes being shitty attracting companies.
BYD has huge future but India isn't allowing it to set up a factory. That factory not only will bring a regular car assembly line but also battery recycling and other sectors in the future.
Already established manufacturing units that are known for supplying US is running meh.
如果按照特朗普的邏輯，他們想要美國(guó)制造的產(chǎn)品，但結(jié)果將是通貨膨脹和經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰，而生活本已艱難。所以需求肯定會(huì)下降。因此，在美國(guó)因?yàn)殛P(guān)稅受到重創(chuàng)并采取行動(dòng)之前，沒有人會(huì)在任何地方進(jìn)行投資。
而且，大多數(shù)行業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)并不樂(lè)觀，進(jìn)行新的巨額投資很困難，尤其是在印度有時(shí)在吸引公司方面表現(xiàn)很差的情況下。
比亞迪有巨大的未來(lái)，但印度不允許它建廠。那家工廠不僅會(huì)帶來(lái)常規(guī)的汽車裝配線，未來(lái)還可能涉及電池回收和其他領(lǐng)域。
那些已經(jīng)建立起來(lái)、以供應(yīng)美國(guó)市場(chǎng)聞名的制造單位，現(xiàn)在也表現(xiàn)平平。
likes: 1
Let’s understand how dollar works.. tariffs going to affect all countries who are part of the list. Let’s focus on Asian market, what’s our best that being export to USA is under pressure. So even less tarrif for India will affect vice versa as you said to setup plants in india will take more than
5 years till chinies will find out escape route
讓我們理解一下美元是如何運(yùn)作的……關(guān)稅將影響名單上的所有國(guó)家。讓我們關(guān)注亞洲市場(chǎng)，我們向美國(guó)出口的最佳產(chǎn)品正面臨壓力。所以，即使印度的關(guān)稅較低，也會(huì)受到反向影響，就像你說(shuō)的，在印度建廠需要超過(guò)5年時(shí)間，到那時(shí)中國(guó)可能已經(jīng)找到了規(guī)避的途徑。
likes: 1
Trump’s entire policy was to create more jobs for americans and use the tariff tactic to shift production in the us thus boosting employment but it would make more sense for those countries to shift production where labour is cheap
特朗普的整個(gè)政策就是為美國(guó)人創(chuàng)造更多就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，并利用關(guān)稅策略將生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移回美國(guó)，從而促進(jìn)就業(yè)。但對(duì)那些公司來(lái)說(shuō)，將生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到勞動(dòng)力廉價(jià)的地方才更合乎邏輯。
likes: 2
His plan will never work. Companies shift to next viable cheap location, which is India. I can't think of any other alternative country not as badly affected by tariffs than us.
他的計(jì)劃永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)成功。公司會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移到下一個(gè)可行的廉價(jià)地點(diǎn)，那就是印度。我想不出還有哪個(gè)替代國(guó)家受關(guān)稅影響不像我們這么小。
likes: 1
But do we have skilled labour’s like china and vietnam?
但是我們有像中國(guó)和越南那樣熟練的勞動(dòng)力嗎？
likes: 1
We have labour but they aren't that skilled. Certainly cheap. Companies can train the labour.
我們有勞動(dòng)力，但他們沒那么熟練。不過(guò)肯定便宜。公司可以培訓(xùn)勞動(dòng)力。
likes: 1
It won't but even if more manufacturing comes in, it will result in more exports widening the trade deficit and thus more tariffs. India will not succeed at manufacturing.
制造業(yè)不會(huì)大規(guī)模轉(zhuǎn)移到印度。但即使有更多制造業(yè)進(jìn)來(lái)，也會(huì)導(dǎo)致更多出口，擴(kuò)大貿(mào)易逆差，從而招致更多關(guān)稅。印度在制造業(yè)方面不會(huì)成功。
likes: 1
It didn't happen in the last 10 years. Why would it happen now? There are good reasons as to why India won't succeed in manufacturing. Vietnam is still very much in the race. Dixon is highly overvalued and they don't even export a lot. Their main market is India.
過(guò)去10年都沒有發(fā)生大規(guī)模轉(zhuǎn)移，為什么現(xiàn)在會(huì)發(fā)生？印度無(wú)法在制造業(yè)取得成功是有充分理由的。越南仍然非常有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。Dixon 的估值過(guò)高，而且他們出口量并不大，主要市場(chǎng)還是印度。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
likes: 1
Not at all what is going to happen.
1. Stock market crash would itself leave companies much less capital to invest elsewhere. They wouldn't have money to invest in India.
2. 26% tariffs still apply to India and then there are tariffs over rest of the world. All that happens if these tariffs stick are US consumer purchasing power is decimated and factories close or scale back production everywhere.
No such shift is going to happen, Indian manufacturing would just take a smaller hit than China.
根本不會(huì)發(fā)生這種事。
1. 股市崩盤本身就會(huì)讓公司缺乏資金去其他地方投資。他們將沒有錢在印度投資。
2. 26%的關(guān)稅仍然適用于印度，而且還有針對(duì)世界其他地區(qū)的關(guān)稅。如果這些關(guān)稅持續(xù)下去，唯一的結(jié)果就是美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買力被摧毀，世界各地的工廠關(guān)閉或縮減生產(chǎn)。
不會(huì)發(fā)生這樣的轉(zhuǎn)移，印度制造業(yè)受到的打擊只會(huì)比中國(guó)小一些。
likes: 1
No. The monthly commissions to the babus, endless meaningless bureaucracy and productivity loss due to irregular electricity and polluted water will cost way more than the tariffs.
不。給官員的月度“傭金”、無(wú)休止且毫無(wú)意義的官僚程序，以及由于電力不穩(wěn)和水污染造成的生產(chǎn)力損失，這些成本遠(yuǎn)超關(guān)稅。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
likes: 1
Not happening or shifting to india, ground realities of india not conducive to manufacturing, manufacturing is long race horse requires team work from everyone,so many redtape in india,that is reason services flourished in india,now that also sunseting.
不會(huì)發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)移到印度的情況。印度的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況不利于制造業(yè)發(fā)展。制造業(yè)是長(zhǎng)跑，需要所有環(huán)節(jié)的團(tuán)隊(duì)合作。印度有太多的官僚障礙，這就是為什么服務(wù)業(yè)在印度蓬勃發(fā)展的原因，但現(xiàn)在服務(wù)業(yè)也日漸式微了。
likes: 1
Ghantaa it will shift. Same story I read during covid nothing happened then nothing will happen now
根本不可能轉(zhuǎn)移。新冠疫情期間我就讀到過(guò)同樣的故事，當(dāng)時(shí)什么都沒發(fā)生，現(xiàn)在也不會(huì)發(fā)生。
likes: 1
Indian labour has been cheaper than China for decades now. India has reduced corporate taxes to an unprecedentedly low value of 22%. Still companies did not move. In the best globalisation environment. Why will they do now?
US is not really that much more expensive compared to China to be honest. Especially now when factories are 60,70, 80% automated. It is the regulations that companies don't want to comply with. Green regulations. Labor regulations. Trump is going to get rid of a lot of those (drill, baby drill motto).
幾十年來(lái)，印度的勞動(dòng)力一直比中國(guó)便宜。印度已將企業(yè)稅降至前所未有的22%低水平。即便如此，公司也沒有搬過(guò)來(lái)，那還是在全球化環(huán)境最好的時(shí)候。他們現(xiàn)在為什么要搬呢？
老實(shí)說(shuō)，與中國(guó)相比，美國(guó)的制造成本并沒有高出那么多，尤其是現(xiàn)在工廠自動(dòng)化程度達(dá)到60%、70%、80%的情況下。公司真正不想遵守的是各種法規(guī)：環(huán)保法規(guī)、勞工法規(guī)。特朗普打算廢除其中很多法規(guī)（比如他的“鉆探吧，寶貝，鉆探吧”口號(hào)）。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://m.mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
likes: 1
this is not the first time companies were incentivized to leave china. last time this happened, most of them went to Thailand, Vietnam and Mexico so who knows
這已經(jīng)不是第一次激勵(lì)公司離開中國(guó)了。上次發(fā)生這種情況時(shí)，大多數(shù)公司去了泰國(guó)、越南和墨西哥，所以誰(shuí)知道這次會(huì)怎樣呢。