The shift in relations between Russia and the US may open a door for a more balanced multipolar system

俄美關(guān)系的轉(zhuǎn)變可能為一個更加平衡的多極體系打開一扇大門

Africa has been heavily affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine since the start of Russia’s military operation in February 2022.

自2022年2月俄羅斯開始軍事行動以來，非洲受到俄烏沖突的嚴(yán)重影響。
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According to a report compiled by ODI Global, the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), the Economic Research Forum (ERF), and Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP), ‘Impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on Africa: policy implications for navigating shocks and building resilience’, Africa has been caught in the crossfire due to lack of supplies of food and agricultural commodities.

根據(jù)ODI全球、非洲經(jīng)濟研究聯(lián)盟、經(jīng)濟研究論壇和經(jīng)濟政策伙伴關(guān)系編寫的一份報告《俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭對非洲的影響：應(yīng)對沖擊和增強抵御能力的政策啟示》，非洲因缺乏糧食和農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)而陷入困境。

The report features case studies on Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Mozambique, Senegal, South Africa, and Sudan, and finds that while direct trade exposure is low, Africa relies on Russia and Ukraine for food and fertilizer imports.

報告對埃及、埃塞俄比亞、肯尼亞、摩洛哥、莫桑比克、塞內(nèi)加爾、南非和蘇丹進行了案例研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)盡管直接貿(mào)易接觸率較低，但非洲依賴俄羅斯和烏克蘭的食品和化肥進口。

Prices up
The conflict has driven up prices of oil, food and fertilizers globally. Simulations suggest that a 10% shock in oil, food and fertilizer prices may reduce Africa’s annual GDP by $7 billion. Actual impacts are likely to be higher since oil, food and fertilizer prices increased by larger shares, at 40%, 18% and 55%, respectively, in 2022.

價格上漲
沖突導(dǎo)致全球石油、食品和化肥價格上漲。模擬結(jié)果表明，石油、食品和化肥價格波動 10% 可能導(dǎo)致非洲年度 GDP 減少 70 億美元。實際影響可能更大，因為石油、食品和化肥價格漲幅更大，到 2022 年分別達到 40%、18% 和 55%。

Global commodity price increases also prompted an increase in interest rates in high-income countries, which in turn triggered capital outflows, exchange rate depreciation and higher borrowing costs for many African countries. The magnitude of an individual country’s impacts varies based on commodity dependence, financial openness, and domestic vulnerabilities.

全球大宗商品價格上漲也促使高收入國家提高利率，進而引發(fā)資本外流、匯率貶值和許多非洲國家借貸成本上升。單個國家受到的影響程度因大宗商品依賴程度、金融開放程度和國內(nèi)脆弱性而異。

The conflict may have exacerbated the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the deterioration of Africa’s macroeconomic and social performance. The overlapping crises have slowed Africa’s development progress and risk long-term “scarring” effects. In 2022, 18 million new poor people were added to the 546 million Africans already living in poverty, and one out of five Africans faced high levels of food insecurity. Women and vulnerable groups also tend to be disproportionately impacted by shocks.

沖突可能加劇了新冠疫情對非洲宏觀經(jīng)濟和社會表現(xiàn)惡化的影響。多重危機減緩了非洲的發(fā)展進程，并有可能產(chǎn)生長期的“疤痕”效應(yīng)。2022年，非洲貧困人口總數(shù)已達5.46億，新增貧困人口1800萬，五分之一的非洲人面臨嚴(yán)重的糧食不安全狀況。婦女和弱勢群體也往往受到?jīng)_擊的嚴(yán)重影響。

Wheat and fertilizers
In Kenya and Egypt, for example, Russian and Ukrainian wheat once accounted for as much as 85% and 67% of wheat imports respectively. Fertilizers, vital for agriculture, have also become scarce and expensive. Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco, Senegal, and South Africa sourced 11%–41% of their fertilizer imports from Russia and Ukraine. As a result, food prices have soared, pushing millions into food insecurity.

小麥和肥料
例如，在肯尼亞和埃及，俄羅斯和烏克蘭小麥曾分別占小麥進口量的 85% 和 67%。對農(nóng)業(yè)至關(guān)重要的肥料也變得稀缺和昂貴。埃及、埃塞俄比亞、摩洛哥、塞內(nèi)加爾和南非從俄羅斯和烏克蘭進口了 11%-41% 的肥料。結(jié)果，糧食價格飆升，使數(shù)百萬人陷入糧食不安全境地。
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Energy bills have surged, putting pressure on national budgets and household finances. Fuel prices in some countries have more than doubled, forcing governments to pass costs onto consumers or risk bankruptcy. The economic strain has also forced many African families to cut spending on once-affordable essentials, with the most vulnerable populations being hit the hardest.

能源賬單激增，給國家預(yù)算和家庭財務(wù)帶來壓力。一些國家的燃料價格上漲了一倍多，迫使政府將成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費者，否則將面臨破產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險。經(jīng)濟壓力還迫使許多非洲家庭削減曾經(jīng)負擔(dān)得起的必需品支出，最脆弱的人群受到的打擊最大。

In West Africa, the situation is the same. The economic crisis in Nigeria has been substantially driven by the conflict, which has had an impact on the costs of important commodities as well as everyday living expenses. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to shortages in fertilizer availability, leading to high prices of fertilizer. Likewise, prices of major food commodities, such as maize, rice, wheat and cooking oils, have been on the rise. This has exposed the country’s vulnerable agrifood system and weakened the local currency, leading to foreign exchange shortages and high inflation rates.

西非的情況也一樣。尼日利亞的經(jīng)濟危機很大程度上是由沖突引發(fā)的，沖突影響了重要商品的成本以及日常生活開支。俄羅斯和烏克蘭的沖突導(dǎo)致化肥短缺，化肥價格上漲。同樣，玉米、大米、小麥和食用油等主要食品的價格也在上漲。這暴露了該國脆弱的農(nóng)業(yè)食品體系，削弱了當(dāng)?shù)刎泿?，?dǎo)致外匯短缺和高通脹率。

According to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, Nigeria is spending more on wheat imports amid high global wheat prices. The situation has negatively impacted Nigeria’s wheat supply value chain. More importantly, official records showed a drastic reduction in durum wheat imports from Russia in 2022. Russia was one of the country’s primary sources of cheap wheat.

根據(jù)美國農(nóng)業(yè)部對外農(nóng)業(yè)服務(wù)局（FAS）的全球農(nóng)業(yè)信息網(wǎng)絡(luò)報告，在全球小麥價格高企的背景下，尼日利亞在小麥進口上的支出增加。這種情況對尼日利亞的小麥供應(yīng)價值鏈產(chǎn)生了負面影響。更重要的是，官方記錄顯示，2022 年從俄羅斯進口的硬粒小麥大幅減少。俄羅斯是該國廉價小麥的主要來源之一。

Grain deal collapse
The issue of supply disruption has a direct lix with the Black Sea grain deal that collapsed. The deal, which was initially brokered by the UN and Türkiye in July 2022, was meant to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain, such as wheat, corn and sunflower products, to world markets, primarily to poorer countries.

糧食協(xié)議破裂
供應(yīng)中斷問題與破裂的黑海糧食協(xié)議有直接聯(lián)系。該協(xié)議最初由聯(lián)合國和土耳其于 2022 年 7 月促成，旨在促進烏克蘭糧食（如小麥、玉米和向日葵產(chǎn)品）出口到世界市場，主要是出口到較貧窮的國家。

In exchange for allowing the shipments of Ukrainian grain, Moscow was promised that Western sanctions would be lifted from its own agricultural exports. A year after it was struck, Russia had to abandon the deal, arguing that it was still unable to get any of its grain or fertilizer out to world markets and that the West had completely ignored its end of the bargain.
Additionally, Moscow noted that more than 70% of the shipments under the initiative had failed to reach poor countries, especially in Africa, and were instead delivered to wealthy nations.

作為允許烏克蘭糧食運輸?shù)慕粨Q條件，俄羅斯承諾解除西方對其農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的制裁。協(xié)議達成一年后，俄羅斯不得不放棄這項協(xié)議，稱其仍無法將任何糧食或化肥運往世界市場，西方完全無視其承諾。
此外，莫斯科指出，根據(jù)該倡議，70% 以上的糧食未能運抵貧窮國家，尤其是非洲國家，而是運往了富裕國家。

Russia then announced it would deliver free grain directly to African countries, in order to help with food security. In July 2023, during the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin pledged to provide free food assistance to six African countries, and Moscow had successfully completed delivery of 200,000 tons of food aid by February 2024.

俄羅斯隨后宣布將直接向非洲國家提供免費糧食，以幫助保障糧食安全。2023年7月，在圣彼得堡舉行的俄非峰會上，俄羅斯總統(tǒng)普京承諾向六個非洲國家提供免費糧食援助，莫斯科已于2024年2月成功完成了20萬噸糧食援助的運送。

Oil and gas
On the oil and gas market, Nigeria’s National Oil Company NNPC Limited affirmed that the crisis has affected the supply chain of Nigeria’s energy outlook. Maryamu Idris, executive director, Crude & Condensate, NNPC Trading Limited, said in a November 2023 panel presentation at the Argus European Crude Conference in London, that in addition to the substantial price shocks impacting commodity and energy prices globally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered a situation where India, a primary destination for Nigerian crude oil increased its appetite for discounted Russian barrels to the detriment of some Nigerian volumes.

石油和天然氣
在石油和天然氣市場，尼日利亞國家石油公司 NNPC Limited 確認(rèn)，這場危機已經(jīng)影響了尼日利亞能源前景的供應(yīng)鏈。NNPC Trading Limited 原油和凝析油執(zhí)行董事 Maryamu Idris 在 2023 年 11 月倫敦 Argus 歐洲原油會議上的小組演講中表示，除了影響全球大宗商品和能源價格的重大價格沖擊外，俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的沖突還引發(fā)了這樣一種情況：作為尼日利亞原油主要目的地的印度增加了對俄羅斯打折原油的需求，從而損害了部分尼日利亞原油產(chǎn)量。

“To illustrate the extent of this shift, Nigeria’s crude exports to India dwindled from approximately 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the six months preceding the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine to 194,000 in the subsequent six months afterwards. And so far, this year, only around 120,000 bpd of Nigerian crude volumes have made their way to India,” she said.

“為了說明這種轉(zhuǎn)變的程度，尼日利亞對印度的原油出口量從 2022 年 2 月入侵烏克蘭前六個月的約 25 萬桶/日減少到隨后六個月的 19.4 萬桶/日。到目前為止，今年只有約 12 萬桶/日的尼日利亞原油運往印度，”她說。

What’s next?
Now that the prospect of peace is here, it looks portent that the African economy will be revived to a more positive direction.
What is even more significant is the prospect of the American acceptance to the new reality of the multipolar world. Saudi Arabia, not Belgium or France or the United Kingdom, was chosen for talks between the US and Russia. Under President Donald Trump, the US is indicating its disconnect to the old order where everything starts and ends in the West. This, however, remain somewhat twisted, considering Trump’s unfavorable stand against the BRICS.

接下來會發(fā)生什么？
既然和平的前景已經(jīng)到來，這似乎預(yù)示著非洲經(jīng)濟將朝著更積極的方向復(fù)蘇。
更重要的是，美國接受多極世界新現(xiàn)實的前景。美國和俄羅斯選擇在沙特阿拉伯進行會談，而不是比利時、法國或英國。在唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，美國表明它與一切始于西方、終于西方的舊秩序脫節(jié)。然而，考慮到特朗普對金磚國家的不利立場，這種說法仍然有些扭曲。

The fact is, Africa will be better with the new multipolar order. Most of the current multilateral institutions were created before many African states gain their independence. The United Nations, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization, SWIFT Payment system, etc. were all created, engineered and controlled by the Western powers, often deployed at the detriment of African progress.

事實上，在新的多極秩序下，非洲會變得更好。大多數(shù)現(xiàn)有的多邊機構(gòu)都是在許多非洲國家獲得獨立之前建立的。聯(lián)合國、國際貨幣基金組織、世界銀行、世界貿(mào)易組織、環(huán)球銀行金融電信協(xié)會支付系統(tǒng)等都是由西方列強創(chuàng)建、設(shè)計和控制的，這些機構(gòu)的部署往往損害了非洲的進步。

These institutions help in strengthening the unipolar system, with the US as the leader of hegemony, supported by the European unx. These institutions have long been tagged as the neocolonial assets used in shortchanging the African continent on its valuable resources, weakening the growth and development of the entire continent through unfair treatment and practices.

這些機構(gòu)有助于加強以美國為霸權(quán)領(lǐng)袖、歐盟為后盾的單極體系。長期以來，這些機構(gòu)一直被視為新殖民主義資產(chǎn)，用于剝奪非洲大陸的寶貴資源，通過不公平的待遇和做法削弱整個非洲大陸的增長和發(fā)展。
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More balance needed
Hence the quest for Africa is to have a new, more balanced international system.

需要更多的平衡
因此，非洲的追求是建立一個新的、更加平衡的國際體系。

Africa has long demanded to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council, several promises were made by the US and other powers, yet nothing was granted. Africa requested enough trade to fund its infrastructure, healthcare and education programs that will serve the needs of the people, yet the Western powers deem it more appropriate to respond to African demands for equal participation and representation with aid, rather than with mutually beneficial proposals to both parties.

非洲長期以來一直要求成為聯(lián)合國安理會常任理事國，美國和其他大國也曾多次作出承諾，但最終都未能實現(xiàn)。非洲要求有足夠的貿(mào)易來資助其基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、醫(yī)療保健和教育項目，以滿足人民的需求，但西方大國認(rèn)為，用援助來滿足非洲平等參與和代表權(quán)的要求比提出對雙方都有利的提議更合適。
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The new peace talks between Russia and the US may open the door for a more equal, balanced and orderly multipolar system that will be formed when Africa is fully aware, independent and at the table. This will help Africa as a continent to push forward its interests within the emerging BRICS multipolar system.

俄美之間的新和平談判可能為更加平等、平衡和有序的多極體系打開大門，當(dāng)非洲充分意識到這一點、獨立并參與其中時，這一體系就會形成。這將有助于非洲大陸在新興的金磚國家多極體系中推進其利益。